NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2020
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 296
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2020 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 380 | 48.2% | 44.7% | 41.5% – 47.8% |
| 2 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | RB | 315 | 47.6% | 44.0% | 40.8% – 47.3% |
| 3 | Gus Edwards◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 144 | 50.7% | 43.6% | 39.8% – 47.6% |
| 4 | Chris Carson◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 141 | 48.9% | 43.0% | 39.2% – 46.9% |
| 5 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 168 | 47.0% | 42.7% | 38.9% – 46.5% |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor◦ provisional | IND | RB | 232 | 45.7% | 42.6% | 39.1% – 46.2% |
| 7 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | NE | RB | 67 | 52.2% | 42.4% | 38.2% – 46.7% |
| 8 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | GB | RB | 202 | 45.5% | 42.4% | 38.8% – 46.0% |
| 9 | Damien Harris◦ provisional | NE | RB | 137 | 46.7% | 42.3% | 38.4% – 46.2% |
| 10 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 187 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 38.6% – 46.0% |
| 11 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 126 | 46.8% | 42.2% | 38.3% – 46.2% |
| 12 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | GB | RB | 121 | 46.3% | 42.0% | 38.0% – 46.0% |
| 13 | Josh Adams◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 29 | 58.6% | 41.9% | 37.4% – 46.4% |
| 14 | Kyle Juszczyk◦ provisional | SF | RB | 17 | 64.7% | 41.6% | 37.0% – 46.2% |
| 15 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | SF | RB | 104 | 44.2% | 41.3% | 37.3% – 45.3% |
| 16 | AJ Dillon◦ provisional | GB | RB | 46 | 47.8% | 41.3% | 36.9% – 45.6% |
| 17 | Ronald Jones◦ provisional | TB | RB | 192 | 42.7% | 41.2% | 37.6% – 44.9% |
| 18 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 54 | 46.3% | 41.2% | 36.9% – 45.5% |
| 19 | Alex Collins◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 18 | 55.6% | 41.1% | 36.6% – 45.7% |
| 20 | James Conner◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 169 | 42.6% | 41.1% | 37.4% – 44.9% |
| 21 | Sony Michel◦ provisional | NE | RB | 79 | 44.3% | 41.1% | 36.9% – 45.3% |
| 22 | Darrell Henderson◦ provisional | LA | RB | 138 | 42.8% | 41.0% | 37.2% – 44.9% |
| 23 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 170 | 42.4% | 41.0% | 37.3% – 44.8% |
| 24 | D'Andre Swift◦ provisional | DET | RB | 114 | 43.0% | 41.0% | 37.0% – 45.0% |
| 25 | Latavius Murray◦ provisional | NO | RB | 146 | 42.5% | 41.0% | 37.1% – 44.8% |
| 26 | Rodney Smith◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 41 | 46.3% | 41.0% | 36.6% – 45.4% |
| 27 | Zack Moss◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 112 | 42.9% | 40.9% | 37.0% – 45.0% |
| 28 | Jalen Richard◦ provisional | LV | RB | 22 | 50.0% | 40.9% | 36.4% – 45.5% |
| 29 | Troymaine Pope◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 15 | 53.3% | 40.9% | 36.3% – 45.5% |
| 30 | J.K. Dobbins◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 135 | 42.2% | 40.8% | 37.0% – 44.8% |
| 31 | Buddy Howell◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 16 | 50.0% | 40.7% | 36.2% – 45.3% |
| 32 | J.D. McKissic◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 85 | 42.4% | 40.7% | 36.6% – 44.9% |
| 33 | Nyheim Hines◦ provisional | IND | RB | 90 | 42.2% | 40.7% | 36.6% – 44.8% |
| 34 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 63 | 42.9% | 40.7% | 36.5% – 45.0% |
| 35 | Ito Smith◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 63 | 42.9% | 40.7% | 36.5% – 45.0% |
| 36 | Myles Gaskin◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 142 | 41.5% | 40.7% | 36.8% – 44.5% |
| 37 | Wayne Gallman◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 147 | 41.5% | 40.6% | 36.8% – 44.5% |
| 38 | Dion Lewis◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 29 | 44.8% | 40.6% | 36.2% – 45.1% |
| 39 | Darrel Williams◦ provisional | KC | RB | 39 | 43.6% | 40.6% | 36.3% – 45.1% |
| 40 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 59 | 42.4% | 40.6% | 36.3% – 44.9% |
| 41 | Kalen Ballage◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 91 | 41.8% | 40.6% | 36.5% – 44.7% |
| 42 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | LA | RB | 101 | 41.6% | 40.6% | 36.5% – 44.6% |
| 43 | Melvin Gordon◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 215 | 40.9% | 40.5% | 37.0% – 44.1% |
| 44 | Ezekiel Elliott◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 245 | 40.4% | 40.3% | 36.9% – 43.8% |
| 45 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 198 | 40.4% | 40.3% | 36.7% – 44.0% |
| 46 | Darwin Thompson◦ provisional | KC | RB | 27 | 40.7% | 40.3% | 35.8% – 44.8% |
| 47 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire◦ provisional | KC | RB | 181 | 40.3% | 40.3% | 36.6% – 44.0% |
| 48 | Josh Jacobs◦ provisional | LV | RB | 273 | 40.3% | 40.3% | 36.9% – 43.7% |
| 49 | Mark Ingram◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 72 | 40.3% | 40.2% | 36.1% – 44.5% |
| 50 | Chase Edmonds◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 97 | 40.2% | 40.2% | 36.2% – 44.3% |
| 51 | D'Ernest Johnson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 33 | 39.4% | 40.2% | 35.7% – 44.6% |
| 52 | J.J. Taylor◦ provisional | NE | RB | 23 | 39.1% | 40.2% | 35.7% – 44.7% |
| 53 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 190 | 40.0% | 40.1% | 36.5% – 43.8% |
| 54 | Corey Clement◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 21 | 38.1% | 40.1% | 35.6% – 44.6% |
| 55 | Trayveon Williams◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 26 | 38.5% | 40.1% | 35.6% – 44.6% |
| 56 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn◦ provisional | TB | RB | 26 | 38.5% | 40.1% | 35.6% – 44.6% |
| 57 | Carlos Hyde◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 81 | 39.5% | 40.1% | 36.0% – 44.3% |
| 58 | Alexander Mattison◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 96 | 39.6% | 40.1% | 36.0% – 44.2% |
| 59 | JaMycal Hasty◦ provisional | SF | RB | 39 | 38.5% | 40.0% | 35.7% – 44.5% |
| 60 | Le'Veon Bell◦ provisional | KC | RB | 82 | 39.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% – 44.1% |
| 61 | Kerryon Johnson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 52 | 38.5% | 40.0% | 35.7% – 44.3% |
| 62 | Alfred Morris◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 55 | 38.2% | 39.9% | 35.6% – 44.2% |
| 63 | Travis Homer◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 25 | 36.0% | 39.9% | 35.4% – 44.4% |
| 64 | Tevin Coleman◦ provisional | SF | RB | 28 | 35.7% | 39.8% | 35.4% – 44.3% |
| 65 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 64 | 37.5% | 39.8% | 35.5% – 44.0% |
| 66 | Matt Breida◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 59 | 37.3% | 39.7% | 35.5% – 44.0% |
| 67 | Justin Jackson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 59 | 37.3% | 39.7% | 35.5% – 44.0% |
| 68 | Leonard Fournette◦ provisional | TB | RB | 97 | 38.1% | 39.7% | 35.7% – 43.8% |
| 69 | DeeJay Dallas◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 34 | 35.3% | 39.7% | 35.3% – 44.2% |
| 70 | Mike Davis◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 165 | 38.8% | 39.7% | 36.0% – 43.5% |
| 71 | Jeremy McNichols◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 47 | 36.2% | 39.7% | 35.4% – 44.0% |
| 72 | D'Onta Foreman◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 22 | 31.8% | 39.6% | 35.2% – 44.2% |
| 73 | Salvon Ahmed◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 75 | 37.3% | 39.6% | 35.5% – 43.9% |
| 74 | Devontae Booker◦ provisional | LV | RB | 93 | 37.6% | 39.6% | 35.6% – 43.7% |
| 75 | Royce Freeman◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 35 | 34.3% | 39.6% | 35.2% – 44.0% |
| 76 | David Montgomery◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 248 | 38.7% | 39.5% | 36.1% – 43.0% |
| 77 | Saquon Barkley◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 19 | 26.3% | 39.4% | 34.9% – 44.0% |
| 78 | Dare Ogunbowale◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 32 | 31.3% | 39.4% | 35.0% – 43.8% |
| 79 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 101 | 36.6% | 39.3% | 35.3% – 43.4% |
| 80 | Jerick McKinnon◦ provisional | SF | RB | 81 | 35.8% | 39.3% | 35.2% – 43.4% |
| 81 | Anthony McFarland◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 33 | 30.3% | 39.2% | 34.8% – 43.7% |
| 82 | Benny Snell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 111 | 36.0% | 39.1% | 35.1% – 43.1% |
| 83 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 239 | 37.7% | 39.1% | 35.6% – 42.6% |
| 84 | David Johnson◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 147 | 36.7% | 39.1% | 35.3% – 42.9% |
| 85 | Joe Mixon◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 119 | 36.1% | 39.1% | 35.1% – 43.0% |
| 86 | James White◦ provisional | NE | RB | 35 | 28.6% | 39.0% | 34.6% – 43.4% |
| 87 | La'Mical Perine◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 64 | 32.8% | 38.9% | 34.7% – 43.2% |
| 88 | DeAndre Washington◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 31 | 25.8% | 38.9% | 34.5% – 43.3% |
| 89 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 116 | 35.3% | 38.9% | 34.9% – 42.8% |
| 90 | Boston Scott◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 80 | 33.8% | 38.9% | 34.8% – 43.0% |
| 91 | Jordan Howard◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 35 | 25.7% | 38.7% | 34.3% – 43.1% |
| 92 | Peyton Barber◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 95 | 33.7% | 38.6% | 34.6% – 42.7% |
| 93 | Devonta Freeman◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 54 | 29.6% | 38.6% | 34.4% – 42.9% |
| 94 | Jordan Wilkins◦ provisional | IND | RB | 86 | 32.6% | 38.5% | 34.4% – 42.6% |
| 95 | Brian Hill◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 100 | 33.0% | 38.4% | 34.4% – 42.4% |
| 96 | James Robinson◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 241 | 36.1% | 38.4% | 34.9% – 41.9% |
| 97 | Giovani Bernard◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 124 | 33.9% | 38.4% | 34.5% – 42.3% |
| 98 | Todd Gurley◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 195 | 35.4% | 38.3% | 34.7% – 41.9% |
| 99 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 156 | 34.6% | 38.3% | 34.6% – 42.1% |
| 100 | Duke Johnson◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 77 | 29.9% | 38.1% | 34.0% – 42.3% |
| 101 | Frank Gore◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 187 | 34.2% | 37.9% | 34.3% – 41.6% |
| 102 | Cam Akers◦ provisional | LA | RB | 145 | 33.1% | 37.9% | 34.1% – 41.7% |
| 103 | Joshua Kelley◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 111 | 31.5% | 37.9% | 33.9% – 41.8% |
| 104 | Adrian Peterson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 156 | 32.7% | 37.6% | 33.9% – 41.4% |
| 105 | Phillip Lindsay◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 118 | 27.1% | 36.5% | 32.6% – 40.4% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).