NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2019
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 519
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2019 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Ingram◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 204 | 46.6% | 40.2% | 37.2% – 43.2% |
| 2 | Todd Gurley◦ provisional | LA | RB | 224 | 44.2% | 39.6% | 36.7% – 42.6% |
| 3 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | GB | RB | 236 | 43.2% | 39.4% | 36.5% – 42.3% |
| 4 | Ezekiel Elliott◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 301 | 42.2% | 39.3% | 36.5% – 42.1% |
| 5 | Marlon Mack◦ provisional | IND | RB | 248 | 42.3% | 39.2% | 36.3% – 42.1% |
| 6 | Gus Edwards◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 133 | 44.4% | 39.0% | 35.9% – 42.2% |
| 7 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 170 | 42.9% | 39.0% | 35.9% – 42.0% |
| 8 | Chris Carson◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 278 | 41.4% | 39.0% | 36.1% – 41.8% |
| 9 | Justin Jackson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 29 | 62.1% | 38.9% | 35.5% – 42.4% |
| 10 | Derrick Henry◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 303 | 40.9% | 38.9% | 36.1% – 41.7% |
| 11 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 87 | 46.0% | 38.8% | 35.6% – 42.1% |
| 12 | Jordan Wilkins◦ provisional | IND | RB | 51 | 49.0% | 38.7% | 35.3% – 42.0% |
| 13 | Jordan Howard◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 119 | 42.9% | 38.6% | 35.5% – 41.8% |
| 14 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 171 | 41.5% | 38.6% | 35.6% – 41.7% |
| 15 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 151 | 41.1% | 38.4% | 35.4% – 41.5% |
| 16 | Melvin Gordon◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 162 | 40.7% | 38.4% | 35.3% – 41.5% |
| 17 | Phillip Lindsay◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 225 | 40.0% | 38.4% | 35.4% – 41.3% |
| 18 | Sony Michel◦ provisional | NE | RB | 247 | 39.7% | 38.3% | 35.4% – 41.2% |
| 19 | Josh Jacobs◦ provisional | LV | RB | 242 | 39.7% | 38.3% | 35.4% – 41.2% |
| 20 | Carlos Hyde◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 245 | 39.6% | 38.3% | 35.4% – 41.2% |
| 21 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | NE | RB | 65 | 43.1% | 38.3% | 35.0% – 41.6% |
| 22 | Qadree Ollison◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 22 | 50.0% | 38.1% | 34.7% – 41.6% |
| 23 | LeSean McCoy◦ provisional | KC | RB | 101 | 40.6% | 38.1% | 34.9% – 41.4% |
| 24 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | GB | RB | 107 | 40.2% | 38.1% | 34.9% – 41.3% |
| 25 | Rashaad Penny◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 65 | 41.5% | 38.1% | 34.8% – 41.4% |
| 26 | Nyheim Hines◦ provisional | IND | RB | 52 | 42.3% | 38.1% | 34.8% – 41.4% |
| 27 | Travis Homer◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 18 | 50.0% | 38.1% | 34.6% – 41.5% |
| 28 | Derrius Guice◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 42 | 42.9% | 38.0% | 34.7% – 41.4% |
| 29 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | SF | RB | 137 | 39.4% | 38.0% | 34.9% – 41.1% |
| 30 | Dalvin Cook◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 250 | 38.8% | 38.0% | 35.2% – 40.9% |
| 31 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 27 | 44.4% | 38.0% | 34.6% – 41.4% |
| 32 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 288 | 38.5% | 38.0% | 35.2% – 40.8% |
| 33 | Spencer Ware◦ provisional | KC | RB | 17 | 47.1% | 38.0% | 34.5% – 41.4% |
| 34 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 17 | 47.1% | 38.0% | 34.5% – 41.4% |
| 35 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 298 | 38.3% | 37.9% | 35.1% – 40.7% |
| 36 | Boston Scott◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 61 | 39.3% | 37.8% | 34.5% – 41.2% |
| 37 | Saquon Barkley◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 217 | 38.3% | 37.8% | 34.9% – 40.8% |
| 38 | T.J. Yeldon◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 17 | 41.2% | 37.8% | 34.3% – 41.2% |
| 39 | Jonathan Williams◦ provisional | IND | RB | 49 | 38.8% | 37.8% | 34.4% – 41.1% |
| 40 | Darrel Williams◦ provisional | KC | RB | 41 | 39.0% | 37.8% | 34.4% – 41.1% |
| 41 | Kerryon Johnson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 113 | 38.0% | 37.7% | 34.6% – 40.9% |
| 42 | Brandon Bolden◦ provisional | NE | RB | 15 | 40.0% | 37.7% | 34.3% – 41.2% |
| 43 | Jalen Richard◦ provisional | LV | RB | 39 | 38.5% | 37.7% | 34.4% – 41.1% |
| 44 | Wayne Gallman◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 29 | 37.9% | 37.7% | 34.3% – 41.1% |
| 45 | Mark Walton◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 53 | 37.7% | 37.7% | 34.4% – 41.0% |
| 46 | Latavius Murray◦ provisional | NO | RB | 146 | 37.7% | 37.6% | 34.6% – 40.8% |
| 47 | Kerrith Whyte◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 24 | 37.5% | 37.6% | 34.3% – 41.1% |
| 48 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 43 | 37.2% | 37.6% | 34.3% – 41.0% |
| 49 | Matt Breida◦ provisional | SF | RB | 123 | 37.4% | 37.6% | 34.5% – 40.8% |
| 50 | Ito Smith◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 22 | 36.4% | 37.6% | 34.2% – 41.0% |
| 51 | Jon Hilliman◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 30 | 36.7% | 37.6% | 34.2% – 41.0% |
| 52 | Myles Gaskin◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 36 | 36.1% | 37.5% | 34.2% – 40.9% |
| 53 | James Conner◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 116 | 37.1% | 37.5% | 34.4% – 40.7% |
| 54 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 132 | 37.1% | 37.5% | 34.4% – 40.7% |
| 55 | Elijhaa Penny◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 15 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 34.1% – 41.0% |
| 56 | Darwin Thompson◦ provisional | KC | RB | 37 | 35.1% | 37.5% | 34.1% – 40.9% |
| 57 | C.J. Anderson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 16 | 31.3% | 37.5% | 34.0% – 40.9% |
| 58 | C.J. Prosise◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 24 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 34.1% – 40.9% |
| 59 | Tarik Cohen◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 64 | 35.9% | 37.5% | 34.2% – 40.8% |
| 60 | Reggie Bonnafon◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 16 | 31.3% | 37.5% | 34.0% – 40.9% |
| 61 | Joe Mixon◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 278 | 37.0% | 37.4% | 34.6% – 40.3% |
| 62 | Dion Lewis◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 54 | 35.2% | 37.4% | 34.1% – 40.8% |
| 63 | Brian Hill◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 78 | 35.9% | 37.4% | 34.2% – 40.7% |
| 64 | J.D. McKissic◦ provisional | DET | RB | 38 | 34.2% | 37.4% | 34.1% – 40.8% |
| 65 | Bo Scarbrough◦ provisional | DET | RB | 89 | 36.0% | 37.4% | 34.2% – 40.6% |
| 66 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 180 | 36.7% | 37.4% | 34.4% – 40.4% |
| 67 | Chase Edmonds◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 60 | 35.0% | 37.4% | 34.1% – 40.7% |
| 68 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 63 | 34.9% | 37.4% | 34.1% – 40.7% |
| 69 | Ameer Abdullah◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 23 | 30.4% | 37.3% | 34.0% – 40.8% |
| 70 | Darren Sproles◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 18 | 27.8% | 37.3% | 33.9% – 40.8% |
| 71 | Tra Carson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 18 | 27.8% | 37.3% | 33.9% – 40.8% |
| 72 | James White◦ provisional | NE | RB | 69 | 34.8% | 37.3% | 34.1% – 40.6% |
| 73 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | LA | RB | 69 | 34.8% | 37.3% | 34.1% – 40.6% |
| 74 | Chris Thompson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 37 | 32.4% | 37.3% | 34.0% – 40.7% |
| 75 | David Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 94 | 35.1% | 37.3% | 34.1% – 40.5% |
| 76 | Trey Edmunds◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 22 | 27.3% | 37.2% | 33.8% – 40.7% |
| 77 | DeAndre Washington◦ provisional | LV | RB | 108 | 35.2% | 37.2% | 34.1% – 40.4% |
| 78 | Mike Boone◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 49 | 32.6% | 37.2% | 33.9% – 40.6% |
| 79 | Darrell Henderson◦ provisional | LA | RB | 39 | 30.8% | 37.2% | 33.8% – 40.6% |
| 80 | Duke Johnson◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 83 | 33.7% | 37.1% | 33.9% – 40.4% |
| 81 | Bilal Powell◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 59 | 32.2% | 37.1% | 33.8% – 40.4% |
| 82 | Benny Snell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 108 | 34.3% | 37.1% | 33.9% – 40.3% |
| 83 | Damien Williams◦ provisional | KC | RB | 111 | 34.2% | 37.0% | 33.9% – 40.2% |
| 84 | Ryquell Armstead◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 35 | 25.7% | 36.9% | 33.6% – 40.3% |
| 85 | Leonard Fournette◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 266 | 35.3% | 36.9% | 34.1% – 39.7% |
| 86 | Wendell Smallwood◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 22 | 18.2% | 36.9% | 33.5% – 40.3% |
| 87 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 58 | 29.3% | 36.8% | 33.5% – 40.1% |
| 88 | Alexander Mattison◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 100 | 32.0% | 36.7% | 33.6% – 39.9% |
| 89 | Ronald Jones◦ provisional | TB | RB | 172 | 33.7% | 36.7% | 33.7% – 39.7% |
| 90 | Frank Gore◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 166 | 33.1% | 36.5% | 33.6% – 39.6% |
| 91 | Royce Freeman◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 132 | 31.8% | 36.5% | 33.4% – 39.6% |
| 92 | Giovani Bernard◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 53 | 24.5% | 36.4% | 33.1% – 39.8% |
| 93 | Le'Veon Bell◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 245 | 33.5% | 36.3% | 33.5% – 39.2% |
| 94 | Jaylen Samuels◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 66 | 25.8% | 36.3% | 33.1% – 39.6% |
| 95 | Tevin Coleman◦ provisional | SF | RB | 137 | 30.7% | 36.2% | 33.1% – 39.3% |
| 96 | David Montgomery◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 242 | 33.1% | 36.2% | 33.4% – 39.1% |
| 97 | Peyton Barber◦ provisional | TB | RB | 155 | 31.0% | 36.1% | 33.1% – 39.2% |
| 98 | Adrian Peterson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 211 | 32.2% | 36.1% | 33.2% – 39.0% |
| 99 | Kalen Ballage◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 73 | 24.7% | 36.0% | 32.8% – 39.3% |
| 100 | Devonta Freeman◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 184 | 30.4% | 35.8% | 32.8% – 38.8% |
| 101 | Patrick Laird◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 62 | 19.4% | 35.7% | 32.5% – 39.0% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).