NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2018
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 122
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2018 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Anderson◦ provisional | LA | RB | 67 | 59.7% | 46.3% | 40.3% – 52.2% |
| 2 | Marlon Mack | IND | RB | 197 | 47.7% | 44.3% | 39.8% – 48.9% |
| 3 | Todd Gurley | LA | RB | 260 | 46.5% | 44.1% | 39.9% – 48.3% |
| 4 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 139 | 48.2% | 43.8% | 38.8% – 48.9% |
| 5 | Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 133 | 48.1% | 43.7% | 38.6% – 48.8% |
| 6 | Phillip Lindsay | DEN | RB | 193 | 46.1% | 43.3% | 38.7% – 47.9% |
| 7 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | LA | RB | 43 | 55.8% | 43.3% | 37.0% – 49.7% |
| 8 | Wendell Smallwood◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 88 | 47.7% | 42.6% | 37.0% – 48.2% |
| 9 | Jordan Wilkins◦ provisional | IND | RB | 60 | 50.0% | 42.5% | 36.5% – 48.6% |
| 10 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 106 | 46.2% | 42.3% | 36.9% – 47.7% |
| 11 | Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 197 | 44.2% | 42.1% | 37.6% – 46.7% |
| 12 | Damien Williams◦ provisional | KC | RB | 50 | 50.0% | 42.1% | 36.0% – 48.3% |
| 13 | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | RB | 219 | 43.8% | 42.0% | 37.7% – 46.5% |
| 14 | Zach Zenner◦ provisional | DET | RB | 55 | 49.1% | 42.0% | 36.0% – 48.2% |
| 15 | Marshawn Lynch◦ provisional | LV | RB | 90 | 45.6% | 41.7% | 36.2% – 47.3% |
| 16 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 42 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 35.4% – 48.1% |
| 17 | Kapri Bibbs◦ provisional | GB | RB | 21 | 57.1% | 41.5% | 34.8% – 48.4% |
| 18 | Doug Martin | LV | RB | 172 | 43.0% | 41.3% | 36.6% – 46.0% |
| 19 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | SF | RB | 34 | 50.0% | 41.3% | 34.9% – 47.8% |
| 20 | Jaylen Samuels◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 56 | 46.4% | 41.2% | 35.2% – 47.3% |
| 21 | Mike Davis◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 112 | 43.8% | 41.2% | 35.9% – 46.5% |
| 22 | Duke Johnson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 42 | 47.6% | 41.1% | 34.8% – 47.5% |
| 23 | Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 215 | 42.3% | 41.1% | 36.7% – 45.5% |
| 24 | James Conner | PIT | RB | 215 | 42.3% | 41.1% | 36.7% – 45.5% |
| 25 | Mark Ingram | NO | RB | 138 | 42.8% | 40.9% | 35.9% – 46.0% |
| 26 | Sony Michel | NE | RB | 209 | 42.1% | 40.9% | 36.5% – 45.4% |
| 27 | Matt Breida | SF | RB | 153 | 42.5% | 40.9% | 36.0% – 45.8% |
| 28 | Melvin Gordon | LAC | RB | 176 | 42.0% | 40.7% | 36.1% – 45.5% |
| 29 | Jay Ajayi◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 46 | 45.6% | 40.7% | 34.5% – 47.0% |
| 30 | Cameron Artis-Payne◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 19 | 52.6% | 40.7% | 34.0% – 47.6% |
| 31 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | GB | RB | 121 | 42.1% | 40.5% | 35.4% – 45.7% |
| 32 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 304 | 41.1% | 40.5% | 36.6% – 44.4% |
| 33 | Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 181 | 41.4% | 40.4% | 35.8% – 45.1% |
| 34 | Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 237 | 40.9% | 40.2% | 36.0% – 44.5% |
| 35 | Keith Ford◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 21 | 47.6% | 40.1% | 33.5% – 46.9% |
| 36 | Darren Sproles◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 29 | 44.8% | 40.0% | 33.5% – 46.6% |
| 37 | Devontae Booker◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 34 | 44.1% | 40.0% | 33.6% – 46.5% |
| 38 | Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | 192 | 40.6% | 39.9% | 35.4% – 44.5% |
| 39 | Theo Riddick◦ provisional | DET | RB | 40 | 42.5% | 39.7% | 33.5% – 46.1% |
| 40 | Frank Gore | MIA | RB | 156 | 40.4% | 39.7% | 34.9% – 44.6% |
| 41 | Chris Carson | SEA | RB | 247 | 40.1% | 39.7% | 35.5% – 43.9% |
| 42 | Josh Adams◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 121 | 39.7% | 39.3% | 34.2% – 44.5% |
| 43 | Alex Collins◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 114 | 39.5% | 39.1% | 34.0% – 44.4% |
| 44 | Tarik Cohen◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 99 | 39.4% | 39.1% | 33.8% – 44.5% |
| 45 | Jordan Howard | CHI | RB | 250 | 39.2% | 39.1% | 35.0% – 43.3% |
| 46 | Spencer Ware◦ provisional | KC | RB | 51 | 39.2% | 39.0% | 32.9% – 45.1% |
| 47 | Kenneth Dixon◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 60 | 38.3% | 38.7% | 32.8% – 44.7% |
| 48 | Justin Jackson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 50 | 38.0% | 38.6% | 32.6% – 44.8% |
| 49 | John Kelly◦ provisional | LA | RB | 27 | 37.0% | 38.5% | 32.0% – 45.1% |
| 50 | Adrian Peterson | WAS | RB | 251 | 38.3% | 38.4% | 34.3% – 42.6% |
| 51 | DeAndre Washington◦ provisional | LV | RB | 30 | 36.7% | 38.4% | 32.0% – 45.0% |
| 52 | Brian Hill◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 20 | 35.0% | 38.3% | 31.7% – 45.1% |
| 53 | T.J. Yeldon◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 104 | 37.5% | 38.2% | 33.0% – 43.6% |
| 54 | Marcus Murphy◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 52 | 36.5% | 38.1% | 32.2% – 44.3% |
| 55 | James White◦ provisional | NE | RB | 94 | 37.2% | 38.1% | 32.8% – 43.6% |
| 56 | Kerryon Johnson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 118 | 37.3% | 38.1% | 33.0% – 43.3% |
| 57 | Leonard Fournette | JAX | RB | 133 | 36.8% | 37.8% | 32.9% – 42.8% |
| 58 | Wayne Gallman◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 51 | 35.3% | 37.8% | 31.8% – 43.9% |
| 59 | Javorius Allen◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 41 | 34.2% | 37.6% | 31.5% – 44.0% |
| 60 | Rod Smith◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 44 | 34.1% | 37.6% | 31.5% – 43.8% |
| 61 | Chase Edmonds◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 60 | 35.0% | 37.6% | 31.8% – 43.5% |
| 62 | Tevin Coleman | ATL | RB | 167 | 36.5% | 37.5% | 32.9% – 42.2% |
| 63 | Lamar Miller | HOU | RB | 210 | 36.7% | 37.5% | 33.1% – 41.9% |
| 64 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 66 | 34.8% | 37.4% | 31.7% – 43.3% |
| 65 | Nyheim Hines◦ provisional | IND | RB | 85 | 35.3% | 37.4% | 31.9% – 43.0% |
| 66 | Dwayne Washington◦ provisional | NO | RB | 27 | 29.6% | 37.2% | 30.8% – 43.8% |
| 67 | Kenjon Barner◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 19 | 26.3% | 37.1% | 30.6% – 43.9% |
| 68 | Trenton Cannon◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 38 | 31.6% | 37.1% | 30.9% – 43.5% |
| 69 | Royce Freeman | DEN | RB | 130 | 35.4% | 37.0% | 32.1% – 42.1% |
| 70 | Jacquizz Rodgers◦ provisional | TB | RB | 33 | 30.3% | 37.0% | 30.7% – 43.5% |
| 71 | Kalen Ballage◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 36 | 30.6% | 36.9% | 30.7% – 43.4% |
| 72 | Ronald Jones◦ provisional | TB | RB | 23 | 26.1% | 36.8% | 30.3% – 43.5% |
| 73 | Alfred Morris◦ provisional | SF | RB | 111 | 34.2% | 36.6% | 31.5% – 41.9% |
| 74 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | RB | 133 | 34.6% | 36.6% | 31.7% – 41.6% |
| 75 | Rashaad Penny◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 85 | 32.9% | 36.4% | 31.0% – 42.0% |
| 76 | Corey Clement◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 69 | 31.9% | 36.3% | 30.7% – 42.1% |
| 77 | Giovani Bernard◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 56 | 30.4% | 36.2% | 30.3% – 42.2% |
| 78 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 120 | 33.3% | 36.1% | 31.1% – 41.2% |
| 79 | Chris Ivory◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 115 | 33.0% | 36.0% | 31.0% – 41.2% |
| 80 | Ito Smith◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 90 | 32.2% | 36.0% | 30.7% – 41.5% |
| 81 | Chris Thompson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 43 | 27.9% | 36.0% | 29.9% – 42.2% |
| 82 | Elijah McGuire◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 92 | 31.5% | 35.7% | 30.4% – 41.1% |
| 83 | Latavius Murray | MIN | RB | 140 | 32.9% | 35.6% | 30.8% – 40.6% |
| 84 | Jalen Richard◦ provisional | LV | RB | 56 | 28.6% | 35.6% | 29.8% – 41.6% |
| 85 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | 263 | 33.8% | 35.4% | 31.5% – 39.5% |
| 86 | Stevan Ridley◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 29 | 20.7% | 35.3% | 29.1% – 41.8% |
| 87 | Bilal Powell◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 80 | 30.0% | 35.3% | 29.9% – 40.9% |
| 88 | Peyton Barber | TB | RB | 234 | 33.3% | 35.2% | 31.1% – 39.4% |
| 89 | Carlos Hyde | JAX | RB | 172 | 32.6% | 35.2% | 30.6% – 39.8% |
| 90 | Alfred Blue | HOU | RB | 150 | 32.0% | 35.1% | 30.4% – 39.9% |
| 91 | Mike Gillislee◦ provisional | NO | RB | 16 | 6.3% | 35.0% | 28.5% – 41.8% |
| 92 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | NE | RB | 57 | 26.3% | 34.8% | 29.1% – 40.8% |
| 93 | Dion Lewis | TEN | RB | 155 | 29.7% | 33.7% | 29.1% – 38.4% |
| 94 | Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | RB | 143 | 28.7% | 33.3% | 28.6% – 38.2% |
| 95 | David Johnson | ARI | RB | 259 | 29.7% | 32.6% | 28.7% – 36.6% |
| 96 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | RB | 161 | 28.0% | 32.6% | 28.1% – 37.3% |
| 97 | LeGarrette Blount | DET | RB | 155 | 26.5% | 31.9% | 27.4% – 36.6% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).