NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2017
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 191
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2017 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dion Lewis◦ provisional | NE | RB | 180 | 46.7% | 41.2% | 37.0% – 45.4% |
| 2 | Alex Collins | BAL | RB | 212 | 45.8% | 41.2% | 37.2% – 45.2% |
| 3 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 121 | 46.3% | 40.0% | 35.5% – 44.6% |
| 4 | Todd Gurley | LA | RB | 279 | 42.6% | 40.0% | 36.3% – 43.7% |
| 5 | Duke Johnson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 82 | 48.8% | 39.9% | 35.0% – 44.8% |
| 6 | Wayne Gallman◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 111 | 46.0% | 39.7% | 35.1% – 44.4% |
| 7 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | GB | RB | 81 | 48.1% | 39.7% | 34.8% – 44.6% |
| 8 | Mike Gillislee◦ provisional | NE | RB | 104 | 45.2% | 39.3% | 34.6% – 44.0% |
| 9 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | RB | 196 | 42.4% | 39.2% | 35.2% – 43.4% |
| 10 | Alfred Morris◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 115 | 44.4% | 39.2% | 34.6% – 43.8% |
| 11 | Corey Clement◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 75 | 46.7% | 39.1% | 34.2% – 44.0% |
| 12 | Derrick Henry◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 176 | 41.5% | 38.7% | 34.5% – 42.9% |
| 13 | Rod Smith◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 55 | 47.3% | 38.6% | 33.5% – 43.7% |
| 14 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 242 | 40.5% | 38.5% | 34.7% – 42.4% |
| 15 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | GB | RB | 153 | 41.2% | 38.3% | 34.1% – 42.7% |
| 16 | Le'Veon Bell | PIT | RB | 322 | 39.4% | 38.2% | 34.7% – 41.7% |
| 17 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 47 | 46.8% | 38.2% | 33.1% – 43.4% |
| 18 | Peyton Barber◦ provisional | TB | RB | 108 | 41.7% | 38.1% | 33.5% – 42.8% |
| 19 | James White◦ provisional | NE | RB | 43 | 46.5% | 38.0% | 32.8% – 43.3% |
| 20 | Corey Grant◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 30 | 50.0% | 38.0% | 32.6% – 43.4% |
| 21 | Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 272 | 38.6% | 37.5% | 33.9% – 41.3% |
| 22 | Elijhaa Penny◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 31 | 45.2% | 37.3% | 32.1% – 42.7% |
| 23 | Terrance West◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 40 | 42.5% | 37.2% | 32.0% – 42.5% |
| 24 | Mark Ingram | NO | RB | 230 | 37.8% | 37.0% | 33.2% – 40.9% |
| 25 | Orleans Darkwa◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 172 | 37.8% | 36.9% | 32.8% – 41.1% |
| 26 | Robert Turbin◦ provisional | IND | RB | 23 | 43.5% | 36.9% | 31.5% – 42.3% |
| 27 | Darren Sproles◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 15 | 46.7% | 36.8% | 31.4% – 42.4% |
| 28 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | NE | RB | 64 | 39.1% | 36.8% | 31.9% – 41.8% |
| 29 | Jalen Richard◦ provisional | LV | RB | 56 | 39.3% | 36.8% | 31.8% – 41.9% |
| 30 | Matt Breida◦ provisional | SF | RB | 105 | 38.1% | 36.8% | 32.2% – 41.4% |
| 31 | Rob Kelley◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 62 | 38.7% | 36.7% | 31.8% – 41.8% |
| 32 | James Conner◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 32 | 40.6% | 36.7% | 31.5% – 42.1% |
| 33 | Marshawn Lynch | LV | RB | 207 | 37.2% | 36.6% | 32.7% – 40.7% |
| 34 | J.D. McKissic◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 46 | 39.1% | 36.6% | 31.6% – 41.9% |
| 35 | Jordan Howard | CHI | RB | 276 | 37.0% | 36.6% | 33.0% – 40.3% |
| 36 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 134 | 37.3% | 36.6% | 32.2% – 41.0% |
| 37 | Dalvin Cook◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 74 | 37.8% | 36.5% | 31.8% – 41.5% |
| 38 | Jamaal Charles◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 69 | 37.7% | 36.5% | 31.6% – 41.4% |
| 39 | Giovani Bernard◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 105 | 37.1% | 36.4% | 31.9% – 41.1% |
| 40 | Andre Ellington◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 20 | 40.0% | 36.4% | 31.1% – 41.9% |
| 41 | Travaris Cadet◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 23 | 39.1% | 36.4% | 31.1% – 41.9% |
| 42 | Tarik Cohen◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 87 | 36.8% | 36.3% | 31.6% – 41.1% |
| 43 | Kenjon Barner◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 16 | 37.5% | 36.2% | 30.8% – 41.7% |
| 44 | Charles Sims◦ provisional | TB | RB | 22 | 36.4% | 36.1% | 30.8% – 41.6% |
| 45 | Javorius Allen◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 153 | 35.9% | 36.0% | 31.8% – 40.3% |
| 46 | Joe Mixon◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 178 | 36.0% | 36.0% | 31.9% – 40.2% |
| 47 | D'Onta Foreman◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 78 | 35.9% | 36.0% | 31.3% – 40.9% |
| 48 | Tion Green◦ provisional | DET | RB | 42 | 35.7% | 36.0% | 30.9% – 41.2% |
| 49 | Devontae Booker◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 79 | 35.4% | 35.9% | 31.1% – 40.7% |
| 50 | Marlon Mack◦ provisional | IND | RB | 93 | 35.5% | 35.9% | 31.3% – 40.6% |
| 51 | Cameron Artis-Payne◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 18 | 33.3% | 35.8% | 30.4% – 41.3% |
| 52 | Frank Gore | IND | RB | 261 | 35.6% | 35.8% | 32.1% – 39.6% |
| 53 | Kapri Bibbs◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 21 | 33.3% | 35.8% | 30.4% – 41.3% |
| 54 | T.J. Yeldon◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 49 | 34.7% | 35.8% | 30.8% – 40.9% |
| 55 | Melvin Gordon | LAC | RB | 284 | 35.6% | 35.8% | 32.2% – 39.4% |
| 56 | Jerick McKinnon◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 151 | 35.1% | 35.6% | 31.4% – 39.9% |
| 57 | Jay Ajayi | PHI | RB | 208 | 35.1% | 35.5% | 31.7% – 39.5% |
| 58 | Alfred Blue◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 71 | 33.8% | 35.4% | 30.6% – 40.4% |
| 59 | Stevan Ridley◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 26 | 30.8% | 35.4% | 30.2% – 40.8% |
| 60 | Chris Carson◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 49 | 32.6% | 35.4% | 30.4% – 40.5% |
| 61 | Branden Oliver◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 35 | 31.4% | 35.3% | 30.2% – 40.6% |
| 62 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 117 | 34.2% | 35.3% | 30.9% – 39.9% |
| 63 | Matt Forte◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 103 | 34.0% | 35.3% | 30.8% – 40.0% |
| 64 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | RB | 287 | 34.8% | 35.3% | 31.8% – 39.0% |
| 65 | LeGarrette Blount◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 174 | 34.5% | 35.3% | 31.2% – 39.5% |
| 66 | C.J. Anderson | DEN | RB | 245 | 34.7% | 35.3% | 31.6% – 39.1% |
| 67 | Chris Thompson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 64 | 32.8% | 35.2% | 30.4% – 40.2% |
| 68 | Carlos Hyde | SF | RB | 240 | 34.6% | 35.2% | 31.5% – 39.1% |
| 69 | Terron Ward◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 30 | 30.0% | 35.2% | 30.0% – 40.6% |
| 70 | Chris Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 45 | 31.1% | 35.1% | 30.1% – 40.3% |
| 71 | Dwayne Washington◦ provisional | DET | RB | 20 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 29.7% – 40.5% |
| 72 | Leonard Fournette | JAX | RB | 269 | 34.2% | 35.0% | 31.4% – 38.7% |
| 73 | Mike Tolbert◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 66 | 31.8% | 35.0% | 30.1% – 39.9% |
| 74 | Lamar Miller | HOU | RB | 238 | 34.0% | 34.9% | 31.2% – 38.8% |
| 75 | Theo Riddick◦ provisional | DET | RB | 84 | 32.1% | 34.9% | 30.2% – 39.6% |
| 76 | Wendell Smallwood◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 47 | 29.8% | 34.8% | 29.8% – 40.0% |
| 77 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | LA | RB | 63 | 30.2% | 34.6% | 29.8% – 39.6% |
| 78 | Jacquizz Rodgers◦ provisional | TB | RB | 64 | 29.7% | 34.4% | 29.6% – 39.4% |
| 79 | Jonathan Stewart | CAR | RB | 198 | 32.8% | 34.4% | 30.5% – 38.4% |
| 80 | Charcandrick West◦ provisional | KC | RB | 18 | 16.7% | 34.4% | 29.1% – 39.9% |
| 81 | Latavius Murray | MIN | RB | 216 | 32.9% | 34.4% | 30.5% – 38.3% |
| 82 | Chris Ivory◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 112 | 31.3% | 34.3% | 29.8% – 38.8% |
| 83 | DeAndre Washington◦ provisional | LV | RB | 57 | 28.1% | 34.2% | 29.3% – 39.2% |
| 84 | Jeremy Hill◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 37 | 24.3% | 34.2% | 29.1% – 39.4% |
| 85 | Isaiah Crowell | CLE | RB | 207 | 32.4% | 34.1% | 30.3% – 38.1% |
| 86 | Kerwynn Williams◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 120 | 30.8% | 34.0% | 29.7% – 38.5% |
| 87 | Elijah McGuire◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 88 | 29.5% | 34.0% | 29.4% – 38.7% |
| 88 | Shane Vereen◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 45 | 24.4% | 33.8% | 28.9% – 39.0% |
| 89 | Damien Williams◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 46 | 23.9% | 33.7% | 28.7% – 38.8% |
| 90 | Thomas Rawls◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 58 | 25.9% | 33.7% | 28.8% – 38.7% |
| 91 | DeMarco Murray◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 184 | 31.0% | 33.6% | 29.6% – 37.6% |
| 92 | Tevin Coleman◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 156 | 30.1% | 33.4% | 29.3% – 37.6% |
| 93 | Mike Davis◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 68 | 25.0% | 33.1% | 28.4% – 38.0% |
| 94 | Eddie Lacy◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 69 | 24.6% | 33.0% | 28.3% – 37.9% |
| 95 | Ameer Abdullah◦ provisional | DET | RB | 165 | 29.1% | 32.8% | 28.8% – 37.0% |
| 96 | Adrian Peterson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 156 | 28.8% | 32.8% | 28.7% – 37.0% |
| 97 | Bilal Powell◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 178 | 29.2% | 32.8% | 28.8% – 36.8% |
| 98 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 175 | 28.6% | 32.5% | 28.5% – 36.5% |
| 99 | Doug Martin◦ provisional | TB | RB | 139 | 27.3% | 32.4% | 28.2% – 36.7% |
| 100 | Paul Perkins◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 41 | 12.2% | 31.8% | 26.9% – 36.9% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).