NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2017
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 97 TE · 53 WR
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2017 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden Tate | DET | WR | 120 | 76.7% | 71.1% | 65.3% – 76.6% |
| 2 | Benjamin Watson◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 80 | 76.3% | 69.3% | 63.5% – 74.9% |
| 3 | Jack Doyle | IND | TE | 109 | 73.4% | 68.8% | 63.4% – 74.0% |
| 4 | Ted Ginn | NO | WR | 70 | 75.7% | 68.3% | 61.3% – 75.0% |
| 5 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 65 | 75.4% | 68.3% | 62.2% – 74.2% |
| 6 | Jason Witten◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 87 | 72.4% | 67.8% | 62.0% – 73.3% |
| 7 | Adam Humphries | TB | WR | 83 | 73.5% | 67.7% | 60.9% – 74.1% |
| 8 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 79 | 73.4% | 67.4% | 60.6% – 74.0% |
| 9 | Jordan Reed◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 35 | 77.1% | 67.2% | 60.3% – 73.7% |
| 10 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 105 | 71.4% | 67.1% | 60.8% – 73.1% |
| 11 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 62 | 72.6% | 67.1% | 60.9% – 73.1% |
| 12 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 149 | 69.8% | 66.8% | 61.3% – 72.2% |
| 13 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | WR | 161 | 69.6% | 66.8% | 61.5% – 72.0% |
| 14 | Kyle Rudolph◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 81 | 70.4% | 66.7% | 60.8% – 72.4% |
| 15 | Maxx Williams◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 18 | 83.3% | 66.7% | 59.3% – 73.7% |
| 16 | Randall Cobb | GB | WR | 93 | 71.0% | 66.5% | 59.9% – 72.7% |
| 17 | Nick Boyle◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 38 | 73.7% | 66.4% | 59.6% – 72.9% |
| 18 | Rhett Ellison◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 32 | 75.0% | 66.4% | 59.5% – 73.1% |
| 19 | Levine Toilolo◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 14 | 85.7% | 66.4% | 58.9% – 73.5% |
| 20 | Adam Shaheen◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 14 | 85.7% | 66.4% | 58.9% – 73.5% |
| 21 | Jeremy Kerley◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 27 | 81.5% | 66.3% | 57.4% – 74.7% |
| 22 | Danny Amendola | NE | WR | 86 | 70.9% | 66.2% | 59.5% – 72.7% |
| 23 | Jermaine Gresham◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 46 | 71.7% | 66.2% | 59.6% – 72.6% |
| 24 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 122 | 68.0% | 66.1% | 60.7% – 71.2% |
| 25 | Coby Fleener◦ provisional | NO | TE | 30 | 73.3% | 65.9% | 58.9% – 72.6% |
| 26 | Mohamed Sanu | ATL | WR | 96 | 69.8% | 65.8% | 59.3% – 72.0% |
| 27 | Nick Vannett◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 15 | 80.0% | 65.8% | 58.3% – 73.0% |
| 28 | David Morgan◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 12 | 83.3% | 65.8% | 58.1% – 73.0% |
| 29 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 84 | 70.2% | 65.7% | 58.9% – 72.2% |
| 30 | Trey Burton◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 32 | 71.9% | 65.6% | 58.7% – 72.4% |
| 31 | Brandon Williams◦ provisional | IND | TE | 17 | 76.5% | 65.5% | 58.1% – 72.6% |
| 32 | Jesse James◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 63 | 68.3% | 65.4% | 59.1% – 71.5% |
| 33 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 63 | 68.3% | 65.4% | 59.1% – 71.5% |
| 34 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 74 | 67.6% | 65.3% | 59.2% – 71.2% |
| 35 | Josh Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 22 | 72.7% | 65.3% | 58.0% – 72.3% |
| 36 | Delanie Walker | TEN | TE | 111 | 66.7% | 65.2% | 59.7% – 70.6% |
| 37 | Zach Ertz | PHI | TE | 111 | 66.7% | 65.2% | 59.7% – 70.6% |
| 38 | De'Anthony Thomas◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 87.5% | 65.2% | 55.6% – 74.4% |
| 39 | Tyler Kroft◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 62 | 67.7% | 65.2% | 58.9% – 71.3% |
| 40 | Anthony Fasano◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 16 | 75.0% | 65.2% | 57.7% – 72.4% |
| 41 | Jordan Matthews◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 36 | 69.4% | 65.2% | 58.3% – 71.8% |
| 42 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | WR | 162 | 67.3% | 65.1% | 59.7% – 70.4% |
| 43 | Martellus Bennett◦ provisional | NE | TE | 44 | 68.2% | 65.0% | 58.3% – 71.5% |
| 44 | Trent Taylor | SF | WR | 61 | 70.5% | 64.9% | 57.4% – 72.1% |
| 45 | Nick O'Leary◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 32 | 68.8% | 64.9% | 57.8% – 71.6% |
| 46 | Charles Clay◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 74 | 66.2% | 64.7% | 58.6% – 70.6% |
| 47 | Julius Thomas◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 62 | 66.1% | 64.6% | 58.3% – 70.7% |
| 48 | O.J. Howard◦ provisional | TB | TE | 39 | 66.7% | 64.5% | 57.6% – 71.1% |
| 49 | Luke Willson◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 22 | 68.2% | 64.4% | 57.1% – 71.5% |
| 50 | Ryan Grant | WAS | WR | 65 | 69.2% | 64.4% | 57.0% – 71.5% |
| 51 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | TE | 106 | 65.1% | 64.4% | 58.8% – 69.8% |
| 52 | Niles Paul◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 19 | 68.4% | 64.4% | 57.0% – 71.5% |
| 53 | Ty Montgomery◦ provisional | GB | WR | 31 | 74.2% | 64.3% | 55.5% – 72.7% |
| 54 | Clive Walford◦ provisional | LV | TE | 13 | 69.2% | 64.3% | 56.6% – 71.6% |
| 55 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | WR | 95 | 67.4% | 64.2% | 57.6% – 70.5% |
| 56 | C.J. Uzomah◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 15 | 66.7% | 64.0% | 56.4% – 71.3% |
| 57 | Darren Fells◦ provisional | DET | TE | 26 | 65.4% | 64.0% | 56.7% – 70.9% |
| 58 | Daniel Brown◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 20 | 65.0% | 63.8% | 56.4% – 71.0% |
| 59 | Allen Hurns | JAX | WR | 57 | 68.4% | 63.6% | 56.0% – 71.0% |
| 60 | Virgil Green◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 22 | 63.6% | 63.6% | 56.2% – 70.7% |
| 61 | Garrett Celek◦ provisional | SF | TE | 33 | 63.6% | 63.6% | 56.6% – 70.4% |
| 62 | C.J. Fiedorowicz◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 22 | 63.6% | 63.6% | 56.2% – 70.7% |
| 63 | Richard Rodgers◦ provisional | GB | TE | 19 | 63.2% | 63.5% | 56.0% – 70.7% |
| 64 | Albert Wilson | KC | WR | 62 | 67.7% | 63.5% | 56.0% – 70.7% |
| 65 | Austin Traylor◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 13 | 61.5% | 63.3% | 55.7% – 70.7% |
| 66 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 94 | 66.0% | 63.3% | 56.6% – 69.7% |
| 67 | Jared Cook◦ provisional | LV | TE | 86 | 62.8% | 63.2% | 57.3% – 69.0% |
| 68 | Terrance Williams | DAL | WR | 80 | 66.3% | 63.2% | 56.2% – 69.9% |
| 69 | Vernon Davis◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 69 | 62.3% | 63.0% | 56.8% – 69.1% |
| 70 | Robert Woods | LA | WR | 85 | 65.9% | 63.0% | 56.2% – 69.7% |
| 71 | Cameron Brate◦ provisional | TB | TE | 77 | 62.3% | 63.0% | 56.9% – 69.0% |
| 72 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | WR | 95 | 65.3% | 62.8% | 56.2% – 69.3% |
| 73 | Jarius Wright◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 25 | 72.0% | 62.8% | 53.6% – 71.6% |
| 74 | Ed Dickson◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 49 | 61.2% | 62.8% | 56.1% – 69.3% |
| 75 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 159 | 64.1% | 62.7% | 57.2% – 68.1% |
| 76 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 30 | 60.0% | 62.7% | 55.6% – 69.7% |
| 77 | Seth Roberts | LV | WR | 65 | 66.1% | 62.7% | 55.3% – 69.9% |
| 78 | Eric Ebron◦ provisional | DET | TE | 86 | 61.6% | 62.7% | 56.7% – 68.5% |
| 79 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 22 | 72.7% | 62.7% | 53.3% – 71.6% |
| 80 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 142 | 64.1% | 62.6% | 56.8% – 68.2% |
| 81 | Vance McDonald◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 24 | 58.3% | 62.5% | 55.2% – 69.6% |
| 82 | James O'Shaughnessy◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 24 | 58.3% | 62.5% | 55.2% – 69.6% |
| 83 | Eric Decker | TEN | WR | 83 | 65.1% | 62.5% | 55.6% – 69.2% |
| 84 | Michael Campanaro◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 62.5% | 53.4% – 71.2% |
| 85 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | WR | 117 | 64.1% | 62.4% | 56.2% – 68.4% |
| 86 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 32 | 68.8% | 62.4% | 53.6% – 70.8% |
| 87 | Alex Erickson◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 16 | 75.0% | 62.3% | 52.5% – 71.7% |
| 88 | Justin Hardy◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 29 | 69.0% | 62.2% | 53.2% – 70.8% |
| 89 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | WR | 103 | 64.1% | 62.2% | 55.7% – 68.5% |
| 90 | Kendall Wright | CHI | WR | 92 | 64.1% | 62.1% | 55.4% – 68.6% |
| 91 | Zach Miller◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 35 | 57.1% | 61.9% | 54.8% – 68.7% |
| 92 | Brent Celek◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 24 | 54.2% | 61.7% | 54.4% – 68.8% |
| 93 | Jermaine Kearse | NYJ | WR | 103 | 63.1% | 61.5% | 55.0% – 67.8% |
| 94 | Taylor Gabriel◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 51 | 64.7% | 61.5% | 53.6% – 69.2% |
| 95 | Jeff Heuerman◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 18 | 50.0% | 61.5% | 53.9% – 68.8% |
| 96 | Davante Adams | GB | WR | 118 | 62.7% | 61.4% | 55.2% – 67.4% |
| 97 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 71 | 63.4% | 61.3% | 54.0% – 68.4% |
| 98 | Antonio Gates◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 53 | 56.6% | 61.1% | 54.5% – 67.6% |
| 99 | Seth DeValve◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 58 | 56.9% | 61.1% | 54.6% – 67.4% |
| 100 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 45 | 55.6% | 61.0% | 54.2% – 67.7% |
| 101 | Braxton Miller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 29 | 65.5% | 61.0% | 52.0% – 69.7% |
| 102 | Jimmy Graham | SEA | TE | 98 | 58.2% | 60.9% | 55.1% – 66.5% |
| 103 | Dion Sims◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 29 | 51.7% | 60.9% | 53.6% – 67.9% |
| 104 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | KC | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 60.9% | 51.0% – 70.3% |
| 105 | Tyrell Williams | LAC | WR | 69 | 62.3% | 60.6% | 53.3% – 67.8% |
| 106 | Troy Niklas◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 23 | 47.8% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.8% |
| 107 | Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 165 | 61.2% | 60.5% | 55.0% – 65.9% |
| 108 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | NE | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 60.5% | 50.9% – 69.9% |
| 109 | Lance Kendricks◦ provisional | GB | TE | 35 | 51.4% | 60.4% | 53.3% – 67.3% |
| 110 | A.J. Derby◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 40 | 52.5% | 60.3% | 53.4% – 67.1% |
| 111 | Tommylee Lewis◦ provisional | NO | WR | 15 | 66.7% | 60.3% | 50.4% – 69.8% |
| 112 | Jordan Taylor◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 20 | 65.0% | 60.3% | 50.7% – 69.5% |
| 113 | Ross Travis◦ provisional | IND | TE | 17 | 41.2% | 60.2% | 52.6% – 67.6% |
| 114 | Dwayne Allen◦ provisional | NE | TE | 22 | 45.5% | 60.2% | 52.8% – 67.5% |
| 115 | Ryan Griffin◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 27 | 48.1% | 60.2% | 52.9% – 67.3% |
| 116 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | LA | TE | 32 | 50.0% | 60.2% | 53.1% – 67.2% |
| 117 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 55 | 61.8% | 60.2% | 52.3% – 67.8% |
| 118 | Rishard Matthews | TEN | WR | 87 | 60.9% | 60.0% | 53.1% – 66.7% |
| 119 | Kelvin Benjamin | BUF | WR | 77 | 61.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% – 67.0% |
| 120 | Brandon Coleman◦ provisional | NO | WR | 37 | 62.2% | 60.0% | 51.4% – 68.3% |
| 121 | Chester Rogers◦ provisional | IND | WR | 37 | 62.2% | 60.0% | 51.4% – 68.3% |
| 122 | Demetrius Harris◦ provisional | KC | TE | 36 | 50.0% | 59.9% | 52.8% – 66.8% |
| 123 | Brice Butler◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 24 | 62.5% | 59.7% | 50.4% – 68.7% |
| 124 | David Njoku◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 60 | 53.3% | 59.7% | 53.2% – 66.0% |
| 125 | Evan Engram | NYG | TE | 115 | 55.6% | 59.3% | 53.7% – 64.8% |
| 126 | T.J. Jones◦ provisional | DET | WR | 50 | 60.0% | 59.2% | 51.1% – 67.0% |
| 127 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 148 | 59.5% | 59.2% | 53.4% – 64.8% |
| 128 | Pierre Garcon | SF | WR | 67 | 59.7% | 59.2% | 51.7% – 66.4% |
| 129 | Jordy Nelson | GB | WR | 89 | 59.6% | 59.1% | 52.3% – 65.8% |
| 130 | Amara Darboh◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 59.1% | 49.0% – 68.8% |
| 131 | Ricky Seals-Jones◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 28 | 42.9% | 58.9% | 51.6% – 66.1% |
| 132 | Cody Latimer◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 32 | 59.4% | 58.8% | 49.9% – 67.4% |
| 133 | Darrell Daniels◦ provisional | IND | TE | 13 | 23.1% | 58.8% | 51.0% – 66.4% |
| 134 | Marcedes Lewis◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 49 | 49.0% | 58.7% | 51.9% – 65.3% |
| 135 | Martavis Bryant | PIT | WR | 85 | 58.8% | 58.7% | 51.7% – 65.5% |
| 136 | Geronimo Allison◦ provisional | GB | WR | 39 | 59.0% | 58.7% | 50.1% – 67.0% |
| 137 | DeVante Parker | MIA | WR | 97 | 58.8% | 58.7% | 52.0% – 65.2% |
| 138 | Tavon Austin◦ provisional | LA | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 58.6% | 49.2% – 67.8% |
| 139 | Jakeem Grant◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 22 | 59.1% | 58.6% | 49.2% – 67.8% |
| 140 | Michael Floyd◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 17 | 58.8% | 58.5% | 48.7% – 68.0% |
| 141 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 17 | 58.8% | 58.5% | 48.7% – 68.0% |
| 142 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | WR | 142 | 58.5% | 58.5% | 52.6% – 64.2% |
| 143 | Brandon LaFell | CIN | WR | 89 | 58.4% | 58.4% | 51.6% – 65.2% |
| 144 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 43 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 50.0% – 66.5% |
| 145 | Pharoh Cooper◦ provisional | LA | WR | 19 | 57.9% | 58.3% | 48.6% – 67.7% |
| 146 | Greg Olsen◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 38 | 44.7% | 58.3% | 51.2% – 65.2% |
| 147 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | 57.7% | 58.2% | 49.0% – 67.2% |
| 148 | Brenton Bersin◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 14 | 57.1% | 58.2% | 48.1% – 67.9% |
| 149 | Stephen Anderson◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 52 | 48.1% | 58.2% | 51.5% – 64.7% |
| 150 | Chris Hogan | NE | WR | 59 | 57.6% | 58.0% | 50.3% – 65.6% |
| 151 | Taywan Taylor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 28 | 57.1% | 58.0% | 48.9% – 66.9% |
| 152 | Marqise Lee | JAX | WR | 97 | 57.7% | 58.0% | 51.3% – 64.5% |
| 153 | Laquon Treadwell◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 35 | 57.1% | 57.9% | 49.2% – 66.5% |
| 154 | Andre Holmes◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 57.9% | 48.4% – 67.0% |
| 155 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | DET | WR | 49 | 57.1% | 57.8% | 49.7% – 65.8% |
| 156 | Cole Beasley | DAL | WR | 63 | 57.1% | 57.7% | 50.1% – 65.2% |
| 157 | Dontrelle Inman◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 44 | 56.8% | 57.7% | 49.4% – 65.8% |
| 158 | Tre McBride◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 57.3% | 47.3% – 67.0% |
| 159 | Mike Wallace | BAL | WR | 92 | 56.5% | 57.2% | 50.4% – 63.9% |
| 160 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 108 | 56.5% | 57.1% | 50.7% – 63.5% |
| 161 | Brandin Cooks | NE | WR | 115 | 56.5% | 57.1% | 50.8% – 63.3% |
| 162 | Chad Hansen◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 57.1% | 47.3% – 66.7% |
| 163 | Michael Crabtree | LV | WR | 103 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 50.5% – 63.5% |
| 164 | Donte Moncrief◦ provisional | IND | WR | 47 | 55.3% | 57.0% | 48.8% – 65.0% |
| 165 | Devin Funchess | CAR | WR | 112 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 50.6% – 63.2% |
| 166 | Brandon Marshall◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 33 | 54.5% | 56.9% | 48.1% – 65.6% |
| 167 | Sammy Watkins | LA | WR | 70 | 55.7% | 56.9% | 49.5% – 64.1% |
| 168 | Jeremy Maclin | BAL | WR | 72 | 55.6% | 56.8% | 49.4% – 64.0% |
| 169 | Will Fuller◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 51 | 54.9% | 56.7% | 48.6% – 64.6% |
| 170 | Leonte Carroo◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 56.7% | 46.6% – 66.5% |
| 171 | Terrelle Pryor◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 37 | 54.0% | 56.6% | 48.0% – 65.1% |
| 172 | Deonte Thompson | BUF | WR | 69 | 55.1% | 56.5% | 49.1% – 63.8% |
| 173 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 39 | 53.8% | 56.5% | 47.9% – 64.9% |
| 174 | Willie Snead◦ provisional | NO | WR | 16 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 46.6% – 66.1% |
| 175 | Russell Shepard◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 53.1% | 56.4% | 47.5% – 65.2% |
| 176 | Kenny Stills | MIA | WR | 105 | 55.2% | 56.3% | 49.8% – 62.7% |
| 177 | Kasen Williams◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 18 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 46.5% – 65.8% |
| 178 | Johnny Holton◦ provisional | LV | WR | 18 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 46.5% – 65.8% |
| 179 | Rashard Higgins◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 50 | 54.0% | 56.3% | 48.2% – 64.2% |
| 180 | ArDarius Stewart◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 56.0% | 45.9% – 65.9% |
| 181 | Paul Richardson | SEA | WR | 81 | 54.3% | 55.9% | 48.9% – 62.9% |
| 182 | Robbie Chosen | NYJ | WR | 115 | 54.8% | 55.9% | 49.6% – 62.2% |
| 183 | DeSean Jackson | TB | WR | 92 | 54.4% | 55.8% | 49.0% – 62.6% |
| 184 | Dede Westbrook◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 51 | 52.9% | 55.7% | 47.7% – 63.7% |
| 185 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | WR | 175 | 54.9% | 55.7% | 50.2% – 61.1% |
| 186 | Louis Murphy◦ provisional | SF | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 55.7% | 45.8% – 65.3% |
| 187 | Josh Bellamy◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 46 | 52.2% | 55.5% | 47.3% – 63.6% |
| 188 | Torrey Smith | PHI | WR | 68 | 52.9% | 55.3% | 47.9% – 62.7% |
| 189 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 23 | 47.8% | 55.2% | 45.8% – 64.5% |
| 190 | Brandon Tate◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 55.2% | 45.1% – 65.0% |
| 191 | Travis Benjamin | LAC | WR | 65 | 52.3% | 55.0% | 47.5% – 62.5% |
| 192 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 65 | 52.3% | 55.0% | 47.5% – 62.5% |
| 193 | Marquise Goodwin | SF | WR | 105 | 53.3% | 55.0% | 48.5% – 61.5% |
| 194 | Bennie Fowler | DEN | WR | 56 | 51.8% | 55.0% | 47.1% – 62.8% |
| 195 | Eli Rogers◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 46.3% – 63.6% |
| 196 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | 45.8% | 54.5% | 45.1% – 63.7% |
| 197 | Tavarres King◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 37 | 48.6% | 54.4% | 45.7% – 63.0% |
| 198 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 109 | 52.3% | 54.3% | 47.8% – 60.7% |
| 199 | A.J. Green | CIN | WR | 143 | 52.4% | 54.1% | 48.2% – 59.9% |
| 200 | Dez Bryant | DAL | WR | 132 | 52.3% | 54.0% | 48.0% – 60.0% |
| 201 | Bruce Ellington | HOU | WR | 58 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 46.2% – 61.7% |
| 202 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 34 | 47.1% | 54.0% | 45.1% – 62.7% |
| 203 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 38 | 47.4% | 53.8% | 45.2% – 62.3% |
| 204 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | WR | 92 | 51.1% | 53.8% | 46.9% – 60.5% |
| 205 | Keelan Cole | JAX | WR | 83 | 50.6% | 53.6% | 46.6% – 60.6% |
| 206 | Roger Lewis | NYG | WR | 72 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 46.2% – 60.9% |
| 207 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 138 | 51.4% | 53.4% | 47.4% – 59.3% |
| 208 | Kenny Britt◦ provisional | NE | WR | 43 | 46.5% | 53.1% | 44.7% – 61.4% |
| 209 | Amari Cooper | LV | WR | 96 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 46.2% – 59.7% |
| 210 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 13 | 30.8% | 52.9% | 42.8% – 63.0% |
| 211 | Josh Malone◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 52.8% | 43.0% – 62.5% |
| 212 | J.J. Nelson | ARI | WR | 61 | 47.5% | 52.6% | 44.9% – 60.2% |
| 213 | Michael Clark◦ provisional | GB | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 52.1% | 42.1% – 62.1% |
| 214 | Travis Rudolph◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 22 | 36.4% | 51.9% | 42.4% – 61.4% |
| 215 | Josh Gordon◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 42 | 42.9% | 51.5% | 43.1% – 59.9% |
| 216 | Ricardo Louis | CLE | WR | 61 | 44.3% | 50.8% | 43.1% – 58.5% |
| 217 | Jaron Brown | ARI | WR | 69 | 44.9% | 50.8% | 43.3% – 58.2% |
| 218 | Bryce Treggs◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 18 | 27.8% | 50.6% | 40.9% – 60.3% |
| 219 | Kaelin Clay◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 20 | 30.0% | 50.6% | 41.0% – 60.2% |
| 220 | Josh Doctson | WAS | WR | 78 | 44.9% | 50.3% | 43.1% – 57.5% |
| 221 | Alshon Jeffery | PHI | WR | 123 | 46.3% | 50.0% | 43.8% – 56.1% |
| 222 | Aldrick Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 48 | 39.6% | 49.4% | 41.3% – 57.6% |
| 223 | Corey Coleman | CLE | WR | 58 | 39.7% | 48.6% | 40.8% – 56.4% |
| 224 | Markus Wheaton◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 17 | 17.6% | 48.5% | 38.7% – 58.3% |
| 225 | John Brown | ARI | WR | 56 | 37.5% | 47.6% | 39.8% – 55.5% |
| 226 | Kamar Aiken◦ provisional | IND | WR | 44 | 34.1% | 47.3% | 39.1% – 55.7% |
| 227 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 35 | 28.6% | 46.5% | 37.8% – 55.3% |
| 228 | Zay Jones | BUF | WR | 74 | 36.5% | 45.6% | 38.4% – 52.9% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).