College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 10 Betting Lines

52 games priced · 52 graded · November 1, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:25 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 24–28; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 26–26; 17 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 24–27; 1 push
Average total: 52.7; avg spread 9.0

Our model against the market

Model error: 13.87; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 12.87; same games
Model ATS: 20–32; 52 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

North Carolina at Syracuse

Final

North Carolina 27 · Syracuse 10

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Syracuse −1.5; Syracuse -1.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −105 / −120; Syracuse 52% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.7; +7.2 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved +0.5 (-2.0 → -1.5, 2 books)

Total moved -0.5 (46.0 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

North Carolina covered · by 18.5 · 37 points — under

Army at Air Force

Final

Army 20 · Air Force 17

Spread: Army −1.5; Air Force +1.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −110 / −110; Air Force 50% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.8; -5.3 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved +0.0 (1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (49.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Army covered · by 1.5 · 37 points — under

Hawai'i at San José State

Final

Hawai'i 38 · San José State 45

Conference game

Spread: San José State −2.5; San José State -2.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; San José State 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.3; -0.2 vs market · leans Hawai'i

Spread moved +0.0 (-2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (55.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

San José State covered · by 4.5 · 83 points — over

Buffalo at Bowling Green

Final

Buffalo 28 · Bowling Green 3

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Bowling Green −2.5; Bowling Green -2.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Bowling Green 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.3; +4.8 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (43.5 → 44.0, 2 books)

Result

Buffalo covered · by 27.5 · 31 points — under

Oklahoma at Tennessee

Final

Oklahoma 33 · Tennessee 27

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Tennessee −3.0; Tennessee -3.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −155; Tennessee 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.1; +1.1 vs market · leans Tennessee

Spread moved +0.5 (-3.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (56.0 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma covered · by 9.0 · 60 points — over

UCF at Baylor

Final

UCF 3 · Baylor 30

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Baylor −3.0; Baylor -3.0; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −155; Baylor 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.9; -0.1 vs market · leans UCF

Spread moved +1.5 (-4.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (60.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Baylor covered · by 24.0 · 33 points — under

Florida International at Missouri State

Final

Florida International 21 · Missouri State 28

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Missouri State −3.0; Missouri State -3.0; 3 books
Total: 50.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +135 / −155; Missouri State 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.2; +6.2 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved +0.5 (-3.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (51.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Missouri State covered · by 4.0 · 49 points — under

Vanderbilt at Texas

Final

Vanderbilt 31 · Texas 34

Conference game

Spread: Texas −3.5; Texas -3.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −150; Texas 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.0; +1.5 vs market · leans Texas

Spread moved -0.5 (-3.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (45.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Vanderbilt covered · by 0.5 · 65 points — over

Washington State at Oregon State

Final

Washington State 7 · Oregon State 10

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Washington State −3.5; Oregon State +3.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −170 / +142; Oregon State 40% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.9; -6.4 vs market · leans Washington State

Spread moved +0.0 (3.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (49.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Oregon State covered · by 6.5 · 17 points — under

Arizona at Colorado

Final

Arizona 52 · Colorado 17

Conference game

Spread: Arizona −3.5; Colorado +3.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +155; Colorado 38% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.4; +6.9 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved -1.0 (4.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (52.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Arizona covered · by 31.5 · 69 points — over

Delaware at Liberty

Final

Delaware 30 · Liberty 59

Conference game

Spread: Liberty −3.5; Liberty -3.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −175; Liberty 61% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.0; -0.5 vs market · leans Delaware

Spread moved -0.5 (-3.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (51.0 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Liberty covered · by 25.5 · 89 points — over

New Mexico at UNLV

Final

New Mexico 40 · UNLV 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: UNLV −3.5; UNLV -3.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; UNLV 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.3; +2.8 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved +2.0 (-5.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (62.0 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico covered · by 8.5 · 75 points — over

Louisiana at South Alabama

Final

Louisiana 31 · South Alabama 22

Conference gameUpset

Spread: South Alabama −3.5; South Alabama -3.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; South Alabama 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.9; +0.4 vs market · leans South Alabama

Spread moved +1.0 (-4.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (54.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana covered · by 12.5 · 53 points — over

Duke at Clemson

Final

Duke 46 · Clemson 45

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Clemson −4.0; Clemson -4.0; 3 books
Total: 55.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; Clemson 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.6; +0.6 vs market · leans Clemson

Spread moved -0.5 (-3.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (53.5 → 55.0, 2 books)

Result

Duke covered · by 5.0 · 91 points — over

Michigan State at Minnesota

Final

Michigan State 20 · Minnesota 23

Conference game

Spread: Minnesota −4.5; Minnesota -4.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −198; Minnesota 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.0; +2.5 vs market · leans Minnesota

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (43.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan State covered · by 1.5 · 43 points — under

USC at Nebraska

Final

USC 21 · Nebraska 17

Conference game

Spread: USC −4.5; Nebraska +4.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +154; Nebraska 38% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.2; -2.7 vs market · leans USC

Spread moved -1.5 (6.0 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (58.0 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Nebraska covered · by 0.5 · 38 points — under

Georgia Tech at NC State

Final

Georgia Tech 36 · NC State 48

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Georgia Tech −4.5; NC State +4.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −200 / +170; NC State 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.8; -2.3 vs market · leans Georgia Tech

Spread moved -2.0 (6.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (57.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

NC State covered · by 16.5 · 84 points — over

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee

Final

Jacksonville State 24 · Middle Tennessee 21

Conference game

Spread: Jacksonville State −4.5; Middle Tennessee +4.5; 3 books
Total: 54.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −198 / +165; Middle Tennessee 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.5; -5.0 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved -2.0 (6.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (53.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Middle Tennessee covered · by 1.5 · 45 points — under

Mississippi State at Arkansas

Final

Mississippi State 38 · Arkansas 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Arkansas −5.5; Arkansas -5.5; 3 books
Total: 66.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +165 / −195; Arkansas 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.7; +0.2 vs market · leans Arkansas

Spread moved -2.0 (-3.5 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (67.5 → 66.5, 2 books)

Result

Mississippi State covered · by 8.5 · 73 points — over

East Carolina at Temple

Final

East Carolina 45 · Temple 14

Conference game

Spread: East Carolina −5.5; Temple +5.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −215 / +180; Temple 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.2; +0.3 vs market · leans Temple

Spread moved +1.0 (4.5 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (57.5 → 58.0, 2 books)

Result

East Carolina covered · by 25.5 · 59 points — over

Central Michigan at Western Michigan

Final

Central Michigan 21 · Western Michigan 24

Conference game

Spread: Western Michigan −5.5; Western Michigan -5.5; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +170 / −200; Western Michigan 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.0; +2.5 vs market · leans Western Michigan

Spread moved +0.5 (-6.0 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (41.5 → 43.0, 2 books)

Result

Central Michigan covered · by 2.5 · 45 points — over

Tulane at UTSA

Final

Tulane 26 · UTSA 48

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Tulane −6.0; UTSA +6.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −225 / +190; UTSA 33% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.2; +0.8 vs market · leans UTSA

Spread moved +2.0 (4.0 → 6.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (55.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

UTSA covered · by 28.0 · 74 points — over

Virginia at California

Final

Virginia 31 · California 21

Conference game

Spread: Virginia −6.5; California +6.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −215 / +180; California 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.1; -0.6 vs market · leans Virginia

Spread moved +2.5 (4.0 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (54.0 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Virginia covered · by 3.5 · 52 points — under

Navy at North Texas

Final

Navy 17 · North Texas 31

Conference game

Spread: North Texas −6.5; North Texas -6.5; 3 books
Total: 68.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +200 / −240; North Texas 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.3; +5.8 vs market · leans North Texas

Spread moved -1.0 (-5.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +5.0 (63.5 → 68.5, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 7.5 · 48 points — under

Georgia at Florida

Final

Georgia 24 · Florida 20

Neutral siteConference gameOn the 7

Spread: Georgia −7.0; Florida +7.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −280 / +230; Florida 29% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.2; -4.2 vs market · leans Georgia

Spread moved -0.5 (7.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (50.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Florida covered · by 3.0 · 44 points — under

Marshall at Coastal Carolina

Final

Marshall 27 · Coastal Carolina 44

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Marshall −7.0; Coastal Carolina +7.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −270 / +220; Coastal Carolina 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.6; -2.6 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved +3.0 (4.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (54.0 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Coastal Carolina covered · by 24.0 · 71 points — over

Arizona State at Iowa State

Final

Arizona State 24 · Iowa State 19

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Iowa State −7.5; Iowa State -7.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +235 / −290; Iowa State 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.7; -1.8 vs market · leans Arizona State

Spread moved -4.0 (-3.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (50.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Arizona State covered · by 12.5 · 43 points — under

Texas Tech at Kansas State

Final

Texas Tech 43 · Kansas State 20

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −7.5; Kansas State +7.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −278 / +225; Kansas State 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.7; +4.8 vs market · leans Kansas State

Spread moved +12.0 (-4.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (52.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 15.5 · 63 points — over

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky

Final

New Mexico State 16 · Western Kentucky 35

Conference game

Spread: Western Kentucky −7.5; Western Kentucky -7.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −298; Western Kentucky 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.9; +5.4 vs market · leans Western Kentucky

Spread moved +2.0 (-9.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Kentucky covered · by 11.5 · 51 points — under

James Madison at Texas State

Final

James Madison 52 · Texas State 20

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −7.5; Texas State +7.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −270 / +220; Texas State 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.2; +3.4 vs market · leans Texas State

Spread moved +1.0 (6.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (58.5 → 55.0, 2 books)

Result

James Madison covered · by 24.5 · 72 points — over

Arkansas State at Troy

Final

Arkansas State 23 · Troy 10

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Troy −7.5; Troy -7.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +250 / −310; Troy 73% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.3; +2.8 vs market · leans Troy

Spread moved +0.0 (-7.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (54.0 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas State covered · by 20.5 · 33 points — under

Miami at SMU

Final

Miami 20 · SMU 26

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Miami −8.5; SMU +8.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −360 / +280; SMU 25% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.7; +2.8 vs market · leans SMU

Spread moved -2.0 (10.5 → 8.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (50.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

SMU covered · by 14.5 · 46 points — under

Wyoming at San Diego State

Final

Wyoming 7 · San Diego State 24

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: San Diego State −10.0; San Diego State -10.0; 3 books
Total: 42.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +330 / −440; San Diego State 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.6; +2.6 vs market · leans San Diego State

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (41.5 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 7.0 · 31 points — under

Louisville at Virginia Tech

Final

Louisville 28 · Virginia Tech 16

Conference game

Spread: Louisville −10.5; Virginia Tech +10.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −395 / +300; Virginia Tech 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.8; -0.3 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved +0.0 (10.5 → 10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (53.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisville covered · by 1.5 · 44 points — under

UAB at UConn

Final

UAB 19 · UConn 38

Spread: UConn −10.5; UConn -10.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +295 / −380; UConn 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -14.6; +4.1 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved +1.0 (-11.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (64.0 → 61.5, 2 books)

Result

UConn covered · by 8.5 · 57 points — under

Cincinnati at Utah

Final

Cincinnati 14 · Utah 45

Conference game

Spread: Utah −11.0; Utah -11.0; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −410; Utah 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.2; +2.2 vs market · leans Utah

Spread moved -4.0 (-7.0 → -11.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (56.0 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah covered · by 20.0 · 59 points — over

Kentucky at Auburn

Final

Kentucky 10 · Auburn 3

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Auburn −11.5; Auburn -11.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +340 / −470; Auburn 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.3; +0.8 vs market · leans Auburn

Spread moved -1.5 (-10.0 → -11.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (46.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Kentucky covered · by 18.5 · 13 points — under

Wake Forest at Florida State

Final

Wake Forest 7 · Florida State 42

Conference game

Spread: Florida State −12.5; Florida State -12.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −425; Florida State 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.0; -6.5 vs market · leans Wake Forest

Spread moved -5.0 (-7.5 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (52.0 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida State covered · by 22.5 · 49 points — under

UTEP at Kennesaw State

Final

UTEP 20 · Kennesaw State 33

Conference game

Spread: Kennesaw State −12.5; Kennesaw State -12.5; 3 books
Total: 53.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +340 / −440; Kennesaw State 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.0; -1.5 vs market · leans UTEP

Spread moved -3.0 (-9.5 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.5 (48.5 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Kennesaw State covered · by 0.5 · Total pushed at 53.0

South Carolina at Ole Miss

Final

South Carolina 14 · Ole Miss 30

Conference game

Spread: Ole Miss −13.0; Ole Miss -13.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +380 / −500; Ole Miss 80% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.0; +0.0 vs market · leans Ole Miss

Spread moved +0.5 (-13.5 → -13.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (53.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Ole Miss covered · by 3.0 · 44 points — under

Rutgers at Illinois

Final

Rutgers 13 · Illinois 35

Conference game

Spread: Illinois −13.0; Illinois -13.0; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −500; Illinois 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.2; +0.2 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved +0.0 (-13.0 → -13.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (62.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

Illinois covered · by 9.0 · 48 points — under

West Virginia at Houston

Final

West Virginia 45 · Houston 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Houston −13.0; Houston -13.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +425 / −650; Houston 82% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.9; +0.9 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved +2.5 (-15.5 → -13.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (49.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

West Virginia covered · by 23.0 · 80 points — over

Pittsburgh at Stanford

Final

Pittsburgh 35 · Stanford 20

Conference game

Spread: Pittsburgh −13.5; Stanford +13.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −575 / +410; Stanford 19% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.5; +0.0 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved -0.5 (14.0 → 13.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (51.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Pittsburgh covered · by 1.5 · 55 points — over

Memphis at Rice

Final

Memphis 38 · Rice 14

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Memphis −14.0; Rice +14.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −675 / +450; Rice 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +17.5; -3.5 vs market · leans Memphis

Spread moved +0.0 (14.0 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (49.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Memphis covered · by 10.0 · 52 points — over

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech

Final

Sam Houston 14 · Louisiana Tech 55

Conference game

Spread: Louisiana Tech −16.5; Louisiana Tech -16.5; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +575 / −900; Louisiana Tech 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.8; +1.3 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved +0.5 (-17.0 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (49.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana Tech covered · by 24.5 · 69 points — over

Old Dominion at UL Monroe

Final

Old Dominion 31 · UL Monroe 6

Conference game

Spread: Old Dominion −16.5; UL Monroe +16.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −850 / +550; UL Monroe 15% to win; 3 books
Our model: +14.4; +2.1 vs market · leans UL Monroe

Spread moved +2.0 (14.5 → 16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (53.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Old Dominion covered · by 8.5 · 37 points — under

Penn State at Ohio State

Final

Penn State 14 · Ohio State 38

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −17.5; Ohio State -17.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +800 / −1600; Ohio State 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.4; -1.1 vs market · leans Penn State

Spread moved -13.5 (-4.0 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (43.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 6.5 · 52 points — over

Fresno State at Boise State

Final

Fresno State 30 · Boise State 7

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Boise State −17.5; Boise State -17.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +650 / −1100; Boise State 87% to win; 3 books
Our model: -22.1; +4.6 vs market · leans Boise State

Spread moved +0.0 (-17.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (51.0 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Fresno State covered · by 40.5 · 37 points — under

Indiana at Maryland

Final

Indiana 55 · Maryland 10

Conference game

Spread: Indiana −21.0; Maryland +21.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2100 / +1100; Maryland 8% to win; 3 books
Our model: +15.6; +5.4 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved +0.0 (21.0 → 21.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Indiana covered · by 24.0 · 65 points — over

Purdue at Michigan

Final

Purdue 16 · Michigan 21

Conference game

Spread: Michigan −21.0; Michigan -21.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1000 / −2000; Michigan 91% to win; 3 books
Our model: -19.2; -1.8 vs market · leans Purdue

Spread moved +0.0 (-21.0 → -21.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (50.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Purdue covered · by 16.0 · 37 points — under

Oklahoma State at Kansas

Final

Oklahoma State 21 · Kansas 38

Conference game

Spread: Kansas −24.5; Kansas -24.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1300 / −3500; Kansas 93% to win; 3 books
Our model: -22.3; -2.2 vs market · leans Oklahoma State

Spread moved +0.0 (-24.5 → -24.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (55.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma State covered · by 7.5 · 59 points — over

Notre Dame at Boston College

Final

Notre Dame 25 · Boston College 10

Spread: Notre Dame −31.0; Boston College +31.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −6500 / +3000; Boston College 3% to win; 2 books
Our model: +29.4; +1.6 vs market · leans Boston College

Spread moved +2.5 (28.5 → 31.0, 3 books)

Result

Boston College covered · by 16.0 · 35 points — under

Biggest upsets

Fresno State beat Boise State13% to win
West Virginia beat Houston18% to win
Kentucky beat Auburn22% to win
SMU beat Miami25% to win
Arkansas State beat Troy27% to win

Where we disagreed most

North Carolina at Syracuse+7.2 pts toward Syracuse
Arizona at Colorado+6.9 pts toward Colorado
Wake Forest at Florida State-6.5 pts toward Wake Forest
Washington State at Oregon State-6.4 pts toward Washington State
Florida International at Missouri State+6.2 pts toward Missouri State

Coverage

52 games in this week's window · 52 with a spread · 52 with a total · 52 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →