College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 9 Betting Lines

53 games priced · 53 graded · October 25, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:26 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 31–20–2; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 25–26–2; 14 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 32–21
Average total: 51.8; avg spread 9.9

Our model against the market

Model error: 11.24; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 11.21; same games
Model ATS: 24–27–2; 53 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

Georgia Southern at Arkansas State

Final

Georgia Southern 24 · Arkansas State 34

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Georgia Southern −1.0; Arkansas State +1.0; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −110 / −110; Arkansas State 50% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.9; +1.9 vs market · leans Arkansas State

Spread moved +3.5 (-2.5 → 1.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (62.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas State covered · by 11.0 · 58 points — under

Texas A&M at LSU

Final

Texas A&M 49 · LSU 25

Conference game

Spread: Texas A&M −1.5; LSU +1.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; LSU 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.1; +2.6 vs market · leans LSU

Spread moved +7.0 (-5.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (48.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas A&M covered · by 22.5 · 74 points — over

Toledo at Washington State

Final

Toledo 7 · Washington State 28

Upset

Spread: Toledo −1.5; Washington State +1.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; Washington State 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.3; +0.2 vs market · leans Washington State

Spread moved +3.0 (-1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -6.0 (50.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 22.5 · 35 points — under

Auburn at Arkansas

Final

Auburn 33 · Arkansas 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Arkansas −2.5; Arkansas -2.5; 3 books
Total: 56.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; Arkansas 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.5; -1.0 vs market · leans Auburn

Spread moved -1.0 (-1.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Result

Auburn covered · by 11.5 · 57 points — over

Rutgers at Purdue

Final

Rutgers 27 · Purdue 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Purdue −2.5; Purdue -2.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +115 / −135; Purdue 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.9; -3.4 vs market · leans Rutgers

Spread moved -5.0 (2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (57.5 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

Rutgers covered · by 5.5 · 51 points — under

BYU at Iowa State

Final

BYU 41 · Iowa State 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Iowa State −2.5; Iowa State -2.5; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Iowa State 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.2; -2.3 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (48.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

BYU covered · by 16.5 · 68 points — over

Missouri State at New Mexico State

Final

Missouri State 24 · New Mexico State 17

Conference game

Spread: Missouri State −2.5; New Mexico State +2.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −135 / +114; New Mexico State 45% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.5; -3.0 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved +0.5 (2.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (52.0 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Missouri State covered · by 4.5 · 41 points — under

Western Michigan at Miami (OH)

Final

Western Michigan 17 · Miami (OH) 26

Conference game

Spread: Miami (OH) −2.5; Miami (OH) -2.5; 3 books
Total: 40.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Miami (OH) 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.4; -1.1 vs market · leans Western Michigan

Spread moved +0.0 (-2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (41.5 → 40.0, 2 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 6.5 · 43 points — over

Missouri at Vanderbilt

Final

Missouri 10 · Vanderbilt 17

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Vanderbilt −3.0; Vanderbilt -3.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −150; Vanderbilt 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.4; +1.4 vs market · leans Vanderbilt

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Result

Vanderbilt covered · by 4.0 · 27 points — under

Kennesaw State at Florida International

Final

Kennesaw State 45 · Florida International 26

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Kennesaw State −3.0; Florida International +3.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −145 / +125; Florida International 43% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.1; +4.1 vs market · leans Florida International

Spread moved +1.5 (1.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (48.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Kennesaw State covered · by 16.0 · 71 points — over

San Diego State at Fresno State

Final

San Diego State 23 · Fresno State 0

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: San Diego State −3.0; Fresno State +3.0; 3 books
Total: 46.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −155 / +135; Fresno State 41% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.0; -2.0 vs market · leans San Diego State

Spread moved +0.5 (2.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (48.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 20.0 · 23 points — under

Utah State at New Mexico

Final

Utah State 14 · New Mexico 33

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: New Mexico −3.0; New Mexico -3.0; 3 books
Total: 61.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +125 / −145; New Mexico 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.5; +0.6 vs market · leans New Mexico

Spread moved -1.5 (-1.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (62.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico covered · by 16.0 · 47 points — under

Illinois at Washington

Final

Illinois 25 · Washington 42

Conference game

Spread: Washington −3.5; Washington -3.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +140 / −166; Washington 60% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.9; -0.6 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved +1.0 (-4.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (55.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington covered · by 13.5 · 67 points — over

Baylor at Cincinnati

Final

Baylor 20 · Cincinnati 41

Conference game

Spread: Cincinnati −3.5; Cincinnati -3.5; 3 books
Total: 68.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +145 / −175; Cincinnati 61% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.0; +1.5 vs market · leans Cincinnati

Spread moved +2.0 (-5.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (66.5 → 68.5, 2 books)

Result

Cincinnati covered · by 17.5 · 61 points — under

Kansas State at Kansas

Final

Kansas State 42 · Kansas 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Kansas −3.5; Kansas -3.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +145 / −170; Kansas 61% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.8; -0.7 vs market · leans Kansas State

Spread moved -7.0 (3.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (53.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Kansas State covered · by 28.5 · 59 points — over

South Florida at Memphis

Final

South Florida 31 · Memphis 34

Conference gameUpset

Spread: South Florida −3.5; Memphis +3.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −175 / +145; Memphis 39% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.1; +4.6 vs market · leans Memphis

Spread moved +0.0 (3.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -7.0 (65.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Memphis covered · by 6.5 · 65 points — over

Temple at Tulsa

Final

Temple 38 · Tulsa 37

Conference game

Spread: Temple −4.5; Tulsa +4.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −198 / +164; Tulsa 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.5; -2.0 vs market · leans Temple

Spread moved -1.5 (6.0 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (53.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Tulsa covered · by 3.5 · 75 points — over

NC State at Pittsburgh

Final

NC State 34 · Pittsburgh 53

Conference game

Spread: Pittsburgh −5.0; Pittsburgh -5.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +170 / −205; Pittsburgh 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.5; +5.5 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved +2.5 (-7.5 → -5.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (55.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Pittsburgh covered · by 14.0 · 87 points — over

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech

Final

Western Kentucky 28 · Louisiana Tech 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Louisiana Tech −5.0; Louisiana Tech -5.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +190 / −225; Louisiana Tech 67% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.3; +2.3 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved -2.0 (-3.0 → -5.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (50.0 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Kentucky covered · by 6.0 · 55 points — over

Ole Miss at Oklahoma

Final

Ole Miss 34 · Oklahoma 26

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Oklahoma −5.5; Oklahoma -5.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +165 / −198; Oklahoma 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.5; -4.0 vs market · leans Ole Miss

Spread moved -2.0 (-3.5 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (50.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Ole Miss covered · by 13.5 · 60 points — over

SMU at Wake Forest

Final

SMU 12 · Wake Forest 13

Conference gameUpset

Spread: SMU −5.5; Wake Forest +5.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −218 / +180; Wake Forest 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.3; -1.9 vs market · leans SMU

Spread moved +2.0 (3.5 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (53.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 6.5 · 25 points — under

Colorado State at Wyoming

Final

Colorado State 0 · Wyoming 28

Conference game

Spread: Wyoming −5.5; Wyoming -5.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −218; Wyoming 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.3; -1.2 vs market · leans Colorado State

Spread moved -1.0 (-4.5 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (45.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Wyoming covered · by 22.5 · 28 points — under

California at Virginia Tech

Final

California 34 · Virginia Tech 42

Conference game

Spread: Virginia Tech −6.0; Virginia Tech -6.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +185 / −225; Virginia Tech 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.0; -0.9 vs market · leans California

Spread moved -3.5 (-2.5 → -6.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (49.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Virginia Tech covered · by 2.0 · 76 points — over

South Alabama at Georgia State

Final

South Alabama 38 · Georgia State 31

Conference game

Spread: South Alabama −6.0; Georgia State +6.0; 3 books
Total: 54.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −225 / +185; Georgia State 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.0; +1.0 vs market · leans Georgia State

Spread moved -0.5 (6.5 → 6.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (53.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

South Alabama covered · by 1.0 · 69 points — over

Ball State at Northern Illinois

Final

Ball State 7 · Northern Illinois 21

Conference game

Spread: Northern Illinois −6.5; Northern Illinois -6.5; 3 books
Total: 42.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +200 / −240; Northern Illinois 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.7; -0.8 vs market · leans Ball State

Spread moved -1.5 (-5.0 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (41.5 → 42.0, 2 books)

Result

Northern Illinois covered · by 7.5 · 28 points — under

Northwestern at Nebraska

Final

Northwestern 21 · Nebraska 28

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Nebraska −7.0; Nebraska -7.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +225 / −278; Nebraska 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.9; -1.1 vs market · leans Northwestern

Spread moved +1.5 (-8.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (43.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Push · 49 points — over

Louisiana at Troy

Final

Louisiana 23 · Troy 35

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Troy −7.0; Troy -7.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +235 / −290; Troy 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.4; +1.4 vs market · leans Troy

Spread moved +1.5 (-8.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (50.5 → 47.0, 2 books)

Result

Troy covered · by 5.0 · 58 points — over

Tennessee at Kentucky

Final

Tennessee 56 · Kentucky 34

Conference game

Spread: Tennessee −7.5; Kentucky +7.5; 3 books
Total: 55.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −290 / +240; Kentucky 28% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.9; +0.6 vs market · leans Kentucky

Spread moved -1.5 (9.0 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (52.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Tennessee covered · by 14.5 · 90 points — over

Minnesota at Iowa

Final

Minnesota 3 · Iowa 41

Conference game

Spread: Iowa −7.5; Iowa -7.5; 3 books
Total: 39.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +250 / −300; Iowa 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.1; +4.6 vs market · leans Iowa

Spread moved +0.0 (-7.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (38.5 → 38.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa covered · by 30.5 · 44 points — over

Houston at Arizona State

Final

Houston 24 · Arizona State 16

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Arizona State −7.5; Arizona State -7.5; 3 books
Total: 47.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −298; Arizona State 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.5; +0.0 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved +1.0 (-8.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (47.5 → 47.0, 2 books)

Result

Houston covered · by 15.5 · 40 points — under

Bowling Green at Kent State

Final

Bowling Green 21 · Kent State 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Bowling Green −7.5; Kent State +7.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −320 / +260; Kent State 27% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.5; -3.0 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved -1.0 (8.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (50.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Kent State covered · by 10.5 · 45 points — under

Texas at Mississippi State

Final

Texas 45 · Mississippi State 38

Conference game

Spread: Texas −8.5; Mississippi State +8.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −325 / +260; Mississippi State 27% to win; 3 books
Our model: +8.4; +0.1 vs market · leans Mississippi State

Spread moved +2.0 (6.5 → 8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (45.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Mississippi State covered · by 1.5 · 83 points — over

Middle Tennessee at Delaware

Final

Middle Tennessee 28 · Delaware 31

Conference game

Spread: Delaware −8.5; Delaware -8.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +275 / −345; Delaware 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.9; +7.5 vs market · leans Delaware

Spread moved +2.0 (-10.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (52.5 → 55.0, 2 books)

Result

Middle Tennessee covered · by 5.5 · 59 points — over

UConn at Rice

Final

UConn 34 · Rice 37

UpsetOn the 10

Spread: UConn −10.0; Rice +10.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −380 / +295; Rice 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.7; -1.7 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved +0.5 (9.5 → 10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (48.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Rice covered · by 13.0 · 71 points — over

Akron at Buffalo

Final

Akron 24 · Buffalo 16

Conference gameUpsetOn the 10

Spread: Buffalo −10.0; Buffalo -10.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +310 / −400; Buffalo 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.2; -1.8 vs market · leans Akron

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (47.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Akron covered · by 18.0 · 40 points — under

Alabama at South Carolina

Final

Alabama 29 · South Carolina 22

Conference game

Spread: Alabama −11.5; South Carolina +11.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −500 / +360; South Carolina 21% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.7; +3.8 vs market · leans South Carolina

Spread moved -1.5 (13.0 → 11.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (46.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

South Carolina covered · by 4.5 · 51 points — over

Virginia at North Carolina

Final

Virginia 17 · North Carolina 16

Conference game

Spread: Virginia −11.5; North Carolina +11.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +320; North Carolina 23% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.9; -0.4 vs market · leans Virginia

Spread moved +2.0 (9.5 → 11.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

North Carolina covered · by 10.5 · 33 points — under

Ohio at Eastern Michigan

Final

Ohio 28 · Eastern Michigan 21

Conference game

Spread: Ohio −12.0; Eastern Michigan +12.0; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +320; Eastern Michigan 23% to win; 3 books
Our model: +12.2; -0.2 vs market · leans Ohio

Spread moved +1.5 (10.5 → 12.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (59.0 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

Eastern Michigan covered · by 5.0 · 49 points — under

Michigan at Michigan State

Final

Michigan 31 · Michigan State 20

Conference game

Spread: Michigan −13.5; Michigan State +13.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −600 / +425; Michigan State 18% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.9; +1.6 vs market · leans Michigan State

Spread moved +5.0 (8.5 → 13.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (46.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan State covered · by 2.5 · 51 points — over

App State at Old Dominion

Final

App State 21 · Old Dominion 24

Conference game

Spread: Old Dominion −13.5; Old Dominion -13.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +380 / −550; Old Dominion 80% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.6; +3.1 vs market · leans Old Dominion

Spread moved +0.0 (-13.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (58.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

App State covered · by 10.5 · 45 points — under

Colorado at Utah

Final

Colorado 7 · Utah 53

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Utah −14.0; Utah -14.0; 3 books
Total: 50.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +455 / −700; Utah 83% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.1; -0.9 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved +0.5 (-14.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.0 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Utah covered · by 32.0 · 60 points — over

UL Monroe at Southern Miss

Final

UL Monroe 21 · Southern Miss 49

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Southern Miss −14.0; Southern Miss -14.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +400 / −600; Southern Miss 81% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.3; -2.7 vs market · leans UL Monroe

Spread moved -3.5 (-10.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (48.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Southern Miss covered · by 14.0 · 70 points — over

Florida Atlantic at Navy

Final

Florida Atlantic 32 · Navy 42

Conference game

Spread: Navy −14.5; Navy -14.5; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +450 / −675; Navy 83% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.5; +2.0 vs market · leans Navy

Spread moved +0.0 (-14.5 → -14.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (62.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida Atlantic covered · by 4.5 · 74 points — over

TCU at West Virginia

Final

TCU 23 · West Virginia 17

Conference game

Spread: TCU −16.5; West Virginia +16.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −700 / +460; West Virginia 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +14.2; +2.3 vs market · leans West Virginia

Spread moved +2.0 (14.5 → 16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (55.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

West Virginia covered · by 10.5 · 40 points — under

Massachusetts at Central Michigan

Final

Massachusetts 13 · Central Michigan 38

Conference game

Spread: Central Michigan −16.5; Central Michigan -16.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +550 / −800; Central Michigan 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -21.0; +4.5 vs market · leans Central Michigan

Spread moved +0.0 (-16.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (46.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Central Michigan covered · by 8.5 · 51 points — over

Syracuse at Georgia Tech

Final

Syracuse 16 · Georgia Tech 41

Conference game

Spread: Georgia Tech −17.5; Georgia Tech -17.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +625 / −1000; Georgia Tech 87% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.7; -4.8 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved +0.5 (-18.0 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (54.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Tech covered · by 7.5 · 57 points — over

Boise State at Nevada

Final

Boise State 24 · Nevada 3

Conference game

Spread: Boise State −21.0; Nevada +21.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −1900 / +900; Nevada 10% to win; 3 books
Our model: +21.0; +0.0 vs market · leans Nevada

Spread moved -0.5 (21.5 → 21.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Push · 27 points — under

Boston College at Louisville

Final

Boston College 24 · Louisville 38

Conference game

Spread: Louisville −25.5; Louisville -25.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1300 / −2800; Louisville 93% to win; 3 books
Our model: -26.8; +1.3 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved -1.0 (-24.5 → -25.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (55.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Boston College covered · by 11.5 · 62 points — over

North Texas at Charlotte

Final

North Texas 54 · Charlotte 20

Conference game

Spread: North Texas −25.5; Charlotte +25.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2800 / +1300; Charlotte 7% to win; 2 books
Our model: +24.8; +0.7 vs market · leans Charlotte

Spread moved -1.5 (27.0 → 25.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (58.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 8.5 · 74 points — over

UCLA at Indiana

Final

UCLA 6 · Indiana 56

Conference game

Spread: Indiana −27.5; Indiana -27.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1300 / −4000; Indiana 93% to win; 3 books
Our model: -25.5; -2.0 vs market · leans UCLA

Spread moved -3.0 (-24.5 → -27.5, 3 books)

Result

Indiana covered · by 22.5 · 62 points — over

Stanford at Miami

Final

Stanford 7 · Miami 42

Conference game

Spread: Miami −28.5; Miami -28.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -27.8; -0.7 vs market · leans Stanford

Spread moved +1.5 (-30.0 → -28.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (48.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Miami covered · by 6.5 · 49 points — over

Wisconsin at Oregon

Final

Wisconsin 7 · Oregon 21

Conference game

Spread: Oregon −31.5; Oregon -31.5; 3 books
Total: 45.0; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -29.6; -1.9 vs market · leans Wisconsin

Spread moved +2.5 (-34.0 → -31.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (43.5 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Wisconsin covered · by 17.5 · 28 points — under

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

Final

Oklahoma State 0 · Texas Tech 42

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −37.5; Texas Tech -37.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -32.7; -4.8 vs market · leans Oklahoma State

Spread moved +1.0 (-38.5 → -37.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (56.5 → 56.0, 2 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 4.5 · 42 points — under

Biggest upsets

Akron beat Buffalo23% to win
Rice beat UConn24% to win
Kent State beat Bowling Green27% to win
Houston beat Arizona State28% to win
Western Kentucky beat Louisiana Tech33% to win

Where we disagreed most

Middle Tennessee at Delaware+7.5 pts toward Delaware
NC State at Pittsburgh+5.5 pts toward Pittsburgh
Syracuse at Georgia Tech-4.8 pts toward Syracuse
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech-4.8 pts toward Oklahoma State
Minnesota at Iowa+4.6 pts toward Iowa

Coverage

53 games in this week's window · 53 with a spread · 53 with a total · 50 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →