College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 8 Betting Lines

60 games priced · 60 graded · October 18, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:26 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 29–31; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 28–32; 17 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 30–30
Average total: 52.5; avg spread 9.2

Our model against the market

Model error: 12.29; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 12.12; same games
Model ATS: 34–25; 59 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

Missouri at Auburn

Final

Missouri 23 · Auburn 17

Conference game

Spread: Missouri −1.5; Auburn +1.5; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −118 / −102; Auburn 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.2; +2.7 vs market · leans Auburn

Spread moved +3.0 (-1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (44.5 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Missouri covered · by 4.5 · 40 points — under

LSU at Vanderbilt

Final

LSU 24 · Vanderbilt 31

Conference game

Spread: Vanderbilt −1.5; Vanderbilt -1.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; Vanderbilt 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.1; +0.6 vs market · leans Vanderbilt

Spread moved +0.0 (-1.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (48.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Vanderbilt covered · by 5.5 · 55 points — over

Arizona at Houston

Final

Arizona 28 · Houston 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Arizona −2.0; Houston +2.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −120 / −100; Houston 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.5; +5.5 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved +4.0 (-2.0 → 2.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (46.5 → 47.0, 2 books)

Result

Houston covered · by 5.0 · 59 points — over

Akron at Ball State

Final

Akron 28 · Ball State 42

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Akron −2.0; Ball State +2.0; 3 books
Total: 44.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; Ball State 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.6; +3.6 vs market · leans Ball State

Spread moved +3.5 (-1.5 → 2.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (43.5 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Ball State covered · by 16.0 · 70 points — over

UConn at Boston College

Final

UConn 38 · Boston College 23

Spread: UConn −2.5; Boston College +2.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −130 / +110; Boston College 46% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.5; -2.0 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved +4.5 (-2.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (55.5 → 58.0, 2 books)

Result

UConn covered · by 12.5 · 61 points — over

Hawai'i at Colorado State

Final

Hawai'i 31 · Colorado State 19

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Colorado State −2.5; Colorado State -2.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Colorado State 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.4; +0.9 vs market · leans Colorado State

Spread moved -4.0 (1.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Hawai'i covered · by 14.5 · 50 points — under

Penn State at Iowa

Final

Penn State 24 · Iowa 25

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Iowa −3.0; Iowa -3.0; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +135 / −155; Iowa 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.2; +0.2 vs market · leans Iowa

Spread moved -1.5 (-1.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (38.5 → 41.0, 2 books)

Result

Penn State covered · by 2.0 · 49 points — over

Delaware at Jacksonville State

Final

Delaware 25 · Jacksonville State 38

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Delaware −3.0; Jacksonville State +3.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −150 / +130; Jacksonville State 42% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.2; +6.2 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved +0.5 (2.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Result

Jacksonville State covered · by 16.0 · 63 points — over

San José State at Utah State

Final

San José State 25 · Utah State 30

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Utah State −3.0; Utah State -3.0; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +135 / −155; Utah State 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.9; +3.9 vs market · leans Utah State

Spread moved +1.0 (-4.0 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +8.5 (54.0 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah State covered · by 2.0 · 55 points — under

Old Dominion at James Madison

Final

Old Dominion 27 · James Madison 63

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: James Madison −3.0; James Madison -3.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +125 / −145; James Madison 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.3; -1.7 vs market · leans Old Dominion

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (47.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

James Madison covered · by 33.0 · 90 points — over

Texas State at Marshall

Final

Texas State 37 · Marshall 40

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Texas State −3.0; Marshall +3.0; 3 books
Total: 65.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −150 / +130; Marshall 42% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.6; +8.6 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved -1.0 (4.0 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (64.5 → 65.5, 2 books)

Result

Marshall covered · by 6.0 · 77 points — over

Central Michigan at Bowling Green

Final

Central Michigan 27 · Bowling Green 6

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Bowling Green −3.0; Bowling Green -3.0; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +135 / −155; Bowling Green 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.0; +10.0 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved +3.0 (-6.0 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (43.5 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Central Michigan covered · by 24.0 · 33 points — under

Purdue at Northwestern

Final

Purdue 0 · Northwestern 19

Conference game

Spread: Northwestern −3.5; Northwestern -3.5; 3 books
Total: 47.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +136 / −162; Northwestern 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.8; +4.3 vs market · leans Northwestern

Spread moved +0.0 (-3.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (48.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Northwestern covered · by 15.5 · 19 points — under

SMU at Clemson

Final

SMU 35 · Clemson 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Clemson −3.5; Clemson -3.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; Clemson 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.0; +0.5 vs market · leans Clemson

Spread moved +6.5 (-10.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -5.0 (54.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

SMU covered · by 14.5 · 59 points — over

Georgia Tech at Duke

Final

Georgia Tech 27 · Duke 18

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Duke −3.5; Duke -3.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +140 / −165; Duke 60% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.1; -0.4 vs market · leans Georgia Tech

Spread moved -1.0 (-2.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (60.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Tech covered · by 12.5 · 45 points — under

Baylor at TCU

Final

Baylor 36 · TCU 42

Conference game

Spread: TCU −3.5; TCU -3.5; 3 books
Total: 66.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +136 / −162; TCU 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.1; +5.6 vs market · leans TCU

Spread moved -0.5 (-3.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (66.5 → 66.5, 2 books)

Result

TCU covered · by 2.5 · 78 points — over

UTEP at Sam Houston

Final

UTEP 35 · Sam Houston 17

Neutral siteConference game

Spread: UTEP −3.5; Sam Houston +3.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −165 / +140; Sam Houston 40% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.3; +3.2 vs market · leans Sam Houston

Spread moved +6.0 (-2.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (47.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

UTEP covered · by 14.5 · 52 points — over

Washington at Michigan

Final

Washington 7 · Michigan 24

Conference game

Spread: Michigan −4.0; Michigan -4.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −192; Michigan 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.1; -5.0 vs market · leans Washington

Spread moved +6.5 (-10.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (47.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan covered · by 13.0 · 31 points — under

Maryland at UCLA

Final

Maryland 17 · UCLA 20

Conference game

Spread: UCLA −4.0; UCLA -4.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +154 / −185; UCLA 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.4; -6.4 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved -1.5 (-2.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Maryland covered · by 1.0 · 37 points — under

Utah at BYU

Final

Utah 21 · BYU 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Utah −4.0; BYU +4.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −205 / +170; BYU 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.0; +4.0 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved +0.5 (3.5 → 4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (47.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

BYU covered · by 7.0 · 45 points — under

Wyoming at Air Force

Final

Wyoming 21 · Air Force 24

Conference game

Spread: Air Force −4.0; Air Force -4.0; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; Air Force 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.3; -0.7 vs market · leans Wyoming

Spread moved +1.5 (-5.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (58.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Wyoming covered · by 1.0 · 45 points — under

UTSA at North Texas

Final

UTSA 17 · North Texas 55

Conference game

Spread: North Texas −4.0; North Texas -4.0; 3 books
Total: 64.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −192; North Texas 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.2; +3.2 vs market · leans North Texas

Spread moved +1.5 (-5.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (67.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 34.0 · 72 points — over

Oklahoma at South Carolina

Final

Oklahoma 26 · South Carolina 7

Conference game

Spread: Oklahoma −4.5; South Carolina +4.5; 3 books
Total: 43.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −195 / +165; South Carolina 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.1; +4.7 vs market · leans South Carolina

Spread moved +0.0 (4.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (42.5 → 43.0, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma covered · by 14.5 · 33 points — under

Troy at UL Monroe

Final

Troy 37 · UL Monroe 14

Conference game

Spread: Troy −4.5; UL Monroe +4.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −205 / +170; UL Monroe 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.2; -1.7 vs market · leans Troy

Spread moved -1.0 (5.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (46.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Troy covered · by 18.5 · 51 points — over

Southern Miss at Louisiana

Final

Southern Miss 22 · Louisiana 10

Conference game

Spread: Southern Miss −4.5; Louisiana +4.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +160; Louisiana 37% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.6; +9.1 vs market · leans Louisiana

Spread moved +0.5 (4.0 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (53.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Southern Miss covered · by 7.5 · 32 points — under

West Virginia at UCF

Final

West Virginia 13 · UCF 45

Conference game

Spread: UCF −6.5; UCF -6.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +195 / −238; UCF 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.9; +2.4 vs market · leans UCF

Spread moved +1.0 (-7.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (48.5 → 46.0, 2 books)

Result

UCF covered · by 25.5 · 58 points — over

Georgia State at Georgia Southern

Final

Georgia State 24 · Georgia Southern 41

Conference game

Spread: Georgia Southern −6.5; Georgia Southern -6.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +195 / −238; Georgia Southern 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.3; +2.8 vs market · leans Georgia Southern

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (57.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Southern covered · by 10.5 · 65 points — over

Nebraska at Minnesota

Final

Nebraska 6 · Minnesota 24

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Nebraska −7.0; Minnesota +7.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +210; Minnesota 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.1; +2.9 vs market · leans Minnesota

Spread moved +1.5 (5.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (47.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Minnesota covered · by 25.0 · 30 points — under

Texas A&M at Arkansas

Final

Texas A&M 45 · Arkansas 42

Conference game

Spread: Texas A&M −7.5; Arkansas +7.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −290 / +240; Arkansas 28% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.7; +1.8 vs market · leans Arkansas

Spread moved -0.5 (8.0 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (61.0 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas covered · by 4.5 · 87 points — over

Ole Miss at Georgia

Final

Ole Miss 35 · Georgia 43

Conference game

Spread: Georgia −7.5; Georgia -7.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +230 / −280; Georgia 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.1; -1.4 vs market · leans Ole Miss

Spread moved +3.0 (-10.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (53.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia covered · by 0.5 · 78 points — over

North Carolina at California

Final

North Carolina 18 · California 21

Conference game

Spread: California −7.5; California -7.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +270 / −340; California 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.5; +0.0 vs market · leans California

Spread moved +5.0 (-12.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (46.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

North Carolina covered · by 4.5 · 39 points — under

Texas Tech at Arizona State

Final

Texas Tech 22 · Arizona State 26

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Texas Tech −8.0; Arizona State +8.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −290 / +240; Arizona State 28% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.9; +2.1 vs market · leans Arizona State

Spread moved -2.5 (10.5 → 8.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (49.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Arizona State covered · by 12.0 · 48 points — under

Tennessee at Alabama

Final

Tennessee 20 · Alabama 37

Conference game

Spread: Alabama −8.5; Alabama -8.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +270 / −340; Alabama 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.4; -2.1 vs market · leans Tennessee

Spread moved +3.0 (-11.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +7.0 (53.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Alabama covered · by 8.5 · 57 points — under

Arkansas State at South Alabama

Final

Arkansas State 15 · South Alabama 14

Conference gameUpset

Spread: South Alabama −8.5; South Alabama -8.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +250 / −300; South Alabama 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.1; -1.4 vs market · leans Arkansas State

Spread moved -1.0 (-7.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (58.5 → 57.0, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas State covered · by 9.5 · 29 points — under

Mississippi State at Florida

Final

Mississippi State 21 · Florida 23

Conference game

Spread: Florida −9.5; Florida -9.5; 3 books
Total: 51.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +285 / −360; Florida 75% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.4; -1.1 vs market · leans Mississippi State

Spread moved +0.0 (-9.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (52.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Mississippi State covered · by 7.5 · 44 points — under

Pittsburgh at Syracuse

Final

Pittsburgh 30 · Syracuse 13

Conference game

Spread: Pittsburgh −9.5; Syracuse +9.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −400 / +300; Syracuse 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.9; +7.6 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved -2.0 (11.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (56.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Pittsburgh covered · by 7.5 · 43 points — under

Temple at Charlotte

Final

Temple 49 · Charlotte 14

Conference game

Spread: Temple −9.5; Charlotte +9.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +320; Charlotte 23% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.5; +2.0 vs market · leans Charlotte

Spread moved -2.0 (11.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (46.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Temple covered · by 25.5 · 63 points — over

Florida International at Western Kentucky

Final

Florida International 25 · Western Kentucky 6

Conference gameUpsetOn the 10

Spread: Western Kentucky −10.0; Western Kentucky -10.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +290 / −375; Western Kentucky 75% to win; 3 books
Our model: -14.4; +4.5 vs market · leans Western Kentucky

Spread moved -1.5 (-8.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (55.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida International covered · by 29.0 · 31 points — under

Army at Tulane

Final

Army 17 · Tulane 24

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Tulane −10.0; Tulane -10.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +285 / −360; Tulane 75% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.3; -1.7 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (46.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Army covered · by 3.0 · 41 points — under

USC at Notre Dame

Final

USC 24 · Notre Dame 34

Spread: Notre Dame −10.5; Notre Dame -10.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −395; Notre Dame 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.1; +1.6 vs market · leans Notre Dame

Spread moved -0.5 (-10.0 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved +7.0 (53.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

USC covered · by 0.5 · 58 points — under

Louisville at Miami

Final

Louisville 24 · Miami 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Miami −10.5; Miami -10.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +340 / −440; Miami 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.6; -0.9 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved +2.5 (-13.0 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (53.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisville covered · by 13.5 · 45 points — under

New Mexico State at Liberty

Final

New Mexico State 27 · Liberty 30

Conference game

Spread: Liberty −10.5; Liberty -10.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −425; Liberty 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.7; +1.2 vs market · leans Liberty

Spread moved +0.0 (-10.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (46.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico State covered · by 7.5 · 57 points — over

Coastal Carolina at App State

Final

Coastal Carolina 45 · App State 37

Conference gameUpset

Spread: App State −10.5; App State -10.5; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −425; App State 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.7; -3.8 vs market · leans Coastal Carolina

Spread moved +1.0 (-11.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (49.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Coastal Carolina covered · by 18.5 · 82 points — over

Northern Illinois at Ohio

Final

Northern Illinois 21 · Ohio 48

Conference game

Spread: Ohio −10.5; Ohio -10.5; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +330 / −425; Ohio 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.8; +3.4 vs market · leans Ohio

Spread moved +1.5 (-12.0 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (43.5 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

Ohio covered · by 16.5 · 69 points — over

Texas at Kentucky

Final

Texas 16 · Kentucky 13

Conference game

Spread: Texas −12.5; Kentucky +12.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −470 / +360; Kentucky 21% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.5; +2.0 vs market · leans Kentucky

Spread moved +0.0 (12.5 → 12.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (43.5 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Kentucky covered · by 9.5 · 29 points — under

Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH)

Final

Eastern Michigan 30 · Miami (OH) 44

Conference game

Spread: Miami (OH) −12.5; Miami (OH) -12.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −500; Miami (OH) 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.7; +3.2 vs market · leans Miami (OH)

Spread moved -1.0 (-11.5 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (47.5 → 47.0, 2 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 1.5 · 74 points — over

UNLV at Boise State

Final

UNLV 31 · Boise State 56

Conference game

Spread: Boise State −13.0; Boise State -13.0; 3 books
Total: 61.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −485; Boise State 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.2; -2.8 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved -2.5 (-10.5 → -13.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (62.5 → 61.0, 2 books)

Result

Boise State covered · by 12.0 · 87 points — over

Nevada at New Mexico

Final

Nevada 22 · New Mexico 24

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: New Mexico −14.0; New Mexico -14.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +410 / −550; New Mexico 81% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.3; +1.3 vs market · leans New Mexico

Spread moved -3.5 (-10.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (48.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Nevada covered · by 12.0 · 46 points — under

Washington State at Virginia

Final

Washington State 20 · Virginia 22

Spread: Virginia −16.5; Virginia -16.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +550 / −900; Virginia 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -14.3; -2.2 vs market · leans Washington State

Spread moved +1.5 (-18.0 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (56.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 14.5 · 42 points — under

Tulsa at East Carolina

Final

Tulsa 27 · East Carolina 41

Conference game

Spread: East Carolina −16.5; East Carolina -16.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +525 / −800; East Carolina 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -22.4; +5.9 vs market · leans East Carolina

Spread moved +0.0 (-16.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (52.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Tulsa covered · by 2.5 · 68 points — over

Buffalo at Massachusetts

Final

Buffalo 28 · Massachusetts 21

Conference game

Spread: Buffalo −16.5; Massachusetts +16.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −900 / +575; Massachusetts 14% to win; 3 books
Our model: +14.8; +1.7 vs market · leans Massachusetts

Spread moved -1.0 (17.5 → 16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (44.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Massachusetts covered · by 9.5 · 49 points — over

Oregon at Rutgers

Final

Oregon 56 · Rutgers 10

Conference game

Spread: Oregon −17.5; Rutgers +17.5; 3 books
Total: 62.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −1000 / +600; Rutgers 14% to win; 3 books
Our model: +14.7; +2.8 vs market · leans Rutgers

Spread moved +2.0 (15.5 → 17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (58.5 → 61.5, 2 books)

Result

Oregon covered · by 28.5 · 66 points — over

Florida State at Stanford

Final

Florida State 13 · Stanford 20

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Florida State −17.5; Stanford +17.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −1000 / +625; Stanford 13% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.9; +6.6 vs market · leans Stanford

Spread moved +0.0 (17.5 → 17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (54.5 → 55.0, 2 books)

Result

Stanford covered · by 24.5 · 33 points — under

Florida Atlantic at South Florida

Final

Florida Atlantic 13 · South Florida 48

Conference game

Spread: South Florida −20.5; South Florida -20.5; 3 books
Total: 72.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +850 / −1600; South Florida 90% to win; 3 books
Our model: -25.6; +5.2 vs market · leans South Florida

Spread moved +2.0 (-22.5 → -20.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (73.0 → 72.5, 2 books)

Result

South Florida covered · by 14.5 · 61 points — under

Lafayette at Oregon State

Final

Lafayette 13 · Oregon State 45

Spread: Oregon State −21.0; Oregon State -21.0; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +950 / −2000; Oregon State 91% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +2.0 (-23.5 → -21.5, 2 books)

Total moved +1.0 (54.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Oregon State covered · by 11.0 · 58 points — over

Cincinnati at Oklahoma State

Final

Cincinnati 49 · Oklahoma State 17

Conference game

Spread: Cincinnati −23.5; Oklahoma State +23.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2400 / +1200; Oklahoma State 7% to win; 3 books
Our model: +16.2; +7.3 vs market · leans Oklahoma State

Spread moved +3.0 (20.5 → 23.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (57.0 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Cincinnati covered · by 8.5 · 66 points — over

Memphis at UAB

Final

Memphis 24 · UAB 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Memphis −23.5; UAB +23.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2100 / +1100; UAB 8% to win; 3 books
Our model: +23.2; +0.3 vs market · leans UAB

Spread moved +2.0 (21.5 → 23.5, 3 books)

Total moved -5.0 (64.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

UAB covered · by 30.5 · 55 points — under

Ohio State at Wisconsin

Final

Ohio State 34 · Wisconsin 0

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −24.5; Wisconsin +24.5; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2800 / +1300; Wisconsin 7% to win; 2 books
Our model: +24.2; +0.3 vs market · leans Wisconsin

Spread moved -2.5 (27.0 → 24.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (40.5 → 41.0, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 9.5 · 34 points — under

Kent State at Toledo

Final

Kent State 10 · Toledo 45

Conference game

Spread: Toledo −25.5; Toledo -25.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1200 / −3500; Toledo 93% to win; 3 books
Our model: -25.8; +0.3 vs market · leans Toledo

Spread moved -1.0 (-24.5 → -25.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (52.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Toledo covered · by 9.5 · 55 points — over

Michigan State at Indiana

Final

Michigan State 13 · Indiana 38

Conference game

Spread: Indiana −26.5; Indiana -26.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1500 / −3600; Indiana 94% to win; 2 books
Our model: -29.6; +3.1 vs market · leans Indiana

Spread moved +0.0 (-26.5 → -26.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (52.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan State covered · by 1.5 · 51 points — over

Biggest upsets

UAB beat Memphis8% to win
Stanford beat Florida State13% to win
Louisville beat Miami22% to win
Coastal Carolina beat App State23% to win
Florida International beat Western Kentucky25% to win

Where we disagreed most

Central Michigan at Bowling Green+10.0 pts toward Bowling Green
Southern Miss at Louisiana+9.1 pts toward Louisiana
Texas State at Marshall+8.6 pts toward Marshall
Pittsburgh at Syracuse+7.6 pts toward Syracuse
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State+7.3 pts toward Oklahoma State

Coverage

60 games in this week's window · 60 with a spread · 60 with a total · 60 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →