College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 7 Betting Lines

56 games priced · 56 graded · October 11, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:26 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 29–24–3; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 26–27–3; 16 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 26–30
Average total: 52.0; avg spread 8.5

Our model against the market

Model error: 14.14; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 13.66; same games
Model ATS: 26–27–3; 56 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

Wake Forest at Oregon State

Final

Wake Forest 39 · Oregon State 14

Spread: Wake Forest −1.5; Oregon State +1.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −130 / +110; Oregon State 46% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.4; -3.9 vs market · leans Wake Forest

Spread moved -1.0 (2.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -5.0 (52.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 23.5 · 53 points — over

Liberty at UTEP

Final

Liberty 19 · UTEP 8

Conference game

Spread: Liberty −1.5; UTEP +1.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; UTEP 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.8; +0.7 vs market · leans UTEP

Spread moved -1.0 (2.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (46.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Liberty covered · by 9.5 · 27 points — under

Utah State at Hawai'i

Final

Utah State 26 · Hawai'i 44

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Utah State −1.5; Hawai'i +1.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −118 / −102; Hawai'i 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.0; -1.4 vs market · leans Utah State

Spread moved +3.0 (-1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (58.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Hawai'i covered · by 19.5 · 70 points — over

San José State at Wyoming

Final

San José State 28 · Wyoming 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: San José State −1.5; Wyoming +1.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; Wyoming 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.5; +4.0 vs market · leans Wyoming

Spread moved +0.0 (1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (49.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Wyoming covered · by 8.5 · 63 points — over

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan

Final

Northern Illinois 10 · Eastern Michigan 16

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Northern Illinois −1.5; Eastern Michigan +1.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −120 / −100; Eastern Michigan 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.7; -1.2 vs market · leans Northern Illinois

Spread moved +2.5 (-1.0 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (48.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Eastern Michigan covered · by 7.5 · 26 points — under

Massachusetts at Kent State

Final

Massachusetts 6 · Kent State 42

Conference game

Spread: Kent State −1.5; Kent State -1.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −105 / −115; Kent State 51% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.1; +4.6 vs market · leans Kent State

Spread moved +1.0 (-2.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (48.0 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Kent State covered · by 34.5 · 48 points — under

Oklahoma at Texas

Final

Oklahoma 6 · Texas 23

Neutral siteConference game

Spread: Texas −2.5; Texas -2.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −142; Texas 56% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.4; -2.1 vs market · leans Oklahoma

Spread moved +7.0 (-9.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (42.5 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas covered · by 14.5 · 29 points — under

BYU at Arizona

Final

BYU 33 · Arizona 27

Conference game

Spread: BYU −2.5; Arizona +2.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −140 / +120; Arizona 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.0; -3.5 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved +0.0 (2.5 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (47.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

BYU covered · by 3.5 · 60 points — over

South Florida at North Texas

Final

South Florida 63 · North Texas 36

Conference gameUpset

Spread: North Texas −2.5; North Texas -2.5; 3 books
Total: 68.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +114 / −135; North Texas 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.9; +2.4 vs market · leans North Texas

Spread moved -1.0 (-1.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Result

South Florida covered · by 29.5 · 99 points — over

Alabama at Missouri

Final

Alabama 27 · Missouri 24

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Alabama −3.0; Missouri +3.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −165 / +140; Missouri 40% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.4; +0.7 vs market · leans Missouri

Spread moved -2.5 (5.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Result

Push · 51 points — over

Michigan at USC

Final

Michigan 13 · USC 31

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: USC −3.0; USC -3.0; 3 books
Total: 58.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +125 / −145; USC 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.0; +5.0 vs market · leans USC

Spread moved -1.5 (-1.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (54.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

USC covered · by 15.0 · 44 points — under

Iowa State at Colorado

Final

Iowa State 17 · Colorado 24

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Iowa State −3.0; Colorado +3.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −150 / +130; Colorado 42% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.9; +1.1 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved -1.5 (4.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (51.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Colorado covered · by 10.0 · 41 points — under

TCU at Kansas State

Final

TCU 28 · Kansas State 41

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: TCU −3.0; Kansas State +3.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −140 / +120; Kansas State 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.1; -1.1 vs market · leans TCU

Spread moved +1.5 (1.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (57.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Kansas State covered · by 16.0 · 69 points — over

Missouri State at Middle Tennessee

Final

Missouri State 22 · Middle Tennessee 20

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Missouri State −3.0; Middle Tennessee +3.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −150 / +130; Middle Tennessee 42% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.0; -8.0 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved +0.0 (3.0 → 3.0, 3 books)

Result

Middle Tennessee covered · by 1.0 · 42 points — under

Southern Miss at Georgia Southern

Final

Southern Miss 38 · Georgia Southern 35

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Southern Miss −3.0; Georgia Southern +3.0; 3 books
Total: 60.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −142 / +120; Georgia Southern 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.6; +6.6 vs market · leans Georgia Southern

Spread moved +1.5 (1.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (59.5 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

Push · 73 points — over

UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina

Final

UL Monroe 8 · Coastal Carolina 23

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: UL Monroe −3.0; Coastal Carolina +3.0; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −148 / +124; Coastal Carolina 43% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.6; +4.6 vs market · leans Coastal Carolina

Spread moved +0.5 (2.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (43.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Coastal Carolina covered · by 18.0 · 31 points — under

App State at Georgia State

Final

App State 41 · Georgia State 20

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: App State −3.0; Georgia State +3.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −150 / +130; Georgia State 42% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.5; +5.5 vs market · leans Georgia State

Spread moved -0.5 (3.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (55.0 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

App State covered · by 18.0 · 61 points — over

Georgia at Auburn

Final

Georgia 20 · Auburn 10

Conference game

Spread: Georgia −4.5; Auburn +4.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −210 / +175; Auburn 35% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.8; +0.7 vs market · leans Auburn

Spread moved -2.5 (7.0 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (46.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia covered · by 5.5 · 30 points — under

Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State

Final

Louisiana Tech 7 · Kennesaw State 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Louisiana Tech −4.5; Kennesaw State +4.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −205 / +170; Kennesaw State 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +12.2; -7.7 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved -1.0 (5.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (45.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Kennesaw State covered · by 32.5 · 42 points — under

UAB at Florida Atlantic

Final

UAB 33 · Florida Atlantic 53

Conference game

Spread: Florida Atlantic −4.5; Florida Atlantic -4.5; 3 books
Total: 66.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +170 / −200; Florida Atlantic 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.2; -2.3 vs market · leans UAB

Spread moved +0.0 (-4.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (69.5 → 65.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida Atlantic covered · by 15.5 · 86 points — over

Iowa at Wisconsin

Final

Iowa 37 · Wisconsin 0

Conference game

Spread: Iowa −5.0; Wisconsin +5.0; 3 books
Total: 37.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −225 / +190; Wisconsin 33% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.9; +1.1 vs market · leans Wisconsin

Spread moved +1.5 (3.5 → 5.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (37.5 → 37.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa covered · by 32.0 · 37 points — under

Fresno State at Colorado State

Final

Fresno State 21 · Colorado State 49

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Fresno State −5.5; Colorado State +5.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −205 / +170; Colorado State 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.0; -1.5 vs market · leans Fresno State

Spread moved -1.0 (6.5 → 5.5, 2 books)

Total moved +2.0 (45.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Colorado State covered · by 33.5 · 70 points — over

San Diego State at Nevada

Final

San Diego State 44 · Nevada 10

Conference game

Spread: San Diego State −6.5; Nevada +6.5; 3 books
Total: 42.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −240 / +200; Nevada 32% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.9; -0.4 vs market · leans San Diego State

Spread moved +0.0 (6.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (41.5 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 27.5 · 54 points — over

Florida at Texas A&M

Final

Florida 17 · Texas A&M 34

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Texas A&M −7.0; Texas A&M -7.0; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +210 / −258; Texas A&M 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.1; +4.1 vs market · leans Texas A&M

Spread moved +1.5 (-8.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (45.0 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Texas A&M covered · by 10.0 · 51 points — over

UCLA at Michigan State

Final

UCLA 38 · Michigan State 13

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Michigan State −7.0; Michigan State -7.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +220 / −270; Michigan State 70% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.5; +1.5 vs market · leans Michigan State

Spread moved +0.5 (-7.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (55.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

UCLA covered · by 32.0 · 51 points — under

Nebraska at Maryland

Final

Nebraska 34 · Maryland 31

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Nebraska −7.0; Maryland +7.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −278 / +225; Maryland 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.3; +6.7 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved +1.5 (5.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (47.5 → 47.0, 2 books)

Result

Maryland covered · by 4.0 · 65 points — over

Indiana at Oregon

Final

Indiana 30 · Oregon 20

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Oregon −7.0; Oregon -7.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +225 / −278; Oregon 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.5; -0.5 vs market · leans Indiana

Spread moved +7.0 (-14.0 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (54.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Indiana covered · by 17.0 · 50 points — under

Jacksonville State at Sam Houston

Final

Jacksonville State 29 · Sam Houston 27

Neutral siteConference gameOn the 7

Spread: Jacksonville State −7.0; Sam Houston +7.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −290 / +240; Sam Houston 28% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.1; -4.1 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved -2.0 (9.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (55.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Sam Houston covered · by 5.0 · 56 points — over

Air Force at UNLV

Final

Air Force 48 · UNLV 51

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: UNLV −7.0; UNLV -7.0; 3 books
Total: 65.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +205 / −250; UNLV 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -14.7; +7.7 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved +0.0 (-7.0 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (68.5 → 65.5, 2 books)

Result

Air Force covered · by 4.0 · 99 points — over

East Carolina at Tulane

Final

East Carolina 19 · Tulane 26

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Tulane −7.0; Tulane -7.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +220 / −270; Tulane 70% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.2; -1.8 vs market · leans East Carolina

Spread moved +0.0 (-7.0 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Push · 45 points — under

Purdue at Minnesota

Final

Purdue 20 · Minnesota 27

Conference game

Spread: Minnesota −7.5; Minnesota -7.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +250 / −300; Minnesota 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.8; -1.7 vs market · leans Purdue

Spread moved +2.5 (-10.0 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (51.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Purdue covered · by 0.5 · 47 points — under

Troy at Texas State

Final

Troy 48 · Texas State 41

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Texas State −7.5; Texas State -7.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −298; Texas State 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.4; +3.9 vs market · leans Texas State

Spread moved +3.0 (-10.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Troy covered · by 14.5 · 89 points — over

South Carolina at LSU

Final

South Carolina 10 · LSU 20

Conference game

Spread: LSU −8.5; LSU -8.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +270 / −340; LSU 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.9; +1.4 vs market · leans LSU

Spread moved +1.5 (-10.0 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (44.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

LSU covered · by 1.5 · 30 points — under

Rutgers at Washington

Final

Rutgers 19 · Washington 38

Conference game

Spread: Washington −9.5; Washington -9.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +280 / −360; Washington 75% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.1; +2.6 vs market · leans Washington

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.0 → -9.5, 3 books)

Result

Washington covered · by 9.5 · 57 points — under

Arizona State at Utah

Final

Arizona State 10 · Utah 42

Conference game

Spread: Utah −9.5; Utah -9.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +260 / −320; Utah 73% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.6; -3.9 vs market · leans Arizona State

Spread moved -5.0 (-4.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -6.0 (48.5 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah covered · by 22.5 · 52 points — over

Rice at UTSA

Final

Rice 13 · UTSA 61

Conference game

Spread: UTSA −9.5; UTSA -9.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +280 / −360; UTSA 75% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.6; +2.1 vs market · leans UTSA

Spread moved +3.0 (-12.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (49.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

UTSA covered · by 38.5 · 74 points — over

Ball State at Western Michigan

Final

Ball State 0 · Western Michigan 42

Conference game

Spread: Western Michigan −9.5; Western Michigan -9.5; 3 books
Total: 43.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +275 / −350; Western Michigan 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.5; +3.0 vs market · leans Western Michigan

Spread moved +0.0 (-9.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (43.0 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Michigan covered · by 32.5 · 42 points — under

Arkansas at Tennessee

Final

Arkansas 31 · Tennessee 34

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Tennessee −10.0; Tennessee -10.0; 3 books
Total: 68.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +330 / −425; Tennessee 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.6; +1.6 vs market · leans Tennessee

Spread moved +3.5 (-13.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (69.5 → 68.5, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas covered · by 7.0 · 65 points — under

Navy at Temple

Final

Navy 32 · Temple 31

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Navy −10.0; Temple +10.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −355 / +280; Temple 25% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.4; +5.6 vs market · leans Temple

Spread moved +1.5 (8.5 → 10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Temple covered · by 9.0 · 63 points — over

Pittsburgh at Florida State

Final

Pittsburgh 34 · Florida State 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Florida State −10.5; Florida State -10.5; 3 books
Total: 57.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −400; Florida State 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.7; -7.8 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved -1.0 (-9.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (58.0 → 57.0, 2 books)

Result

Pittsburgh covered · by 13.5 · 65 points — over

UCF at Cincinnati

Final

UCF 11 · Cincinnati 20

Conference game

Spread: Cincinnati −10.5; Cincinnati -10.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +305 / −400; Cincinnati 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.0; -2.5 vs market · leans UCF

Spread moved +0.0 (-10.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (55.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

UCF covered · by 1.5 · 31 points — under

Toledo at Bowling Green

Final

Toledo 23 · Bowling Green 28

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Toledo −10.5; Bowling Green +10.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −410 / +320; Bowling Green 23% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.7; +4.8 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved +2.0 (8.5 → 10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (49.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Bowling Green covered · by 15.5 · 51 points — over

Miami (OH) at Akron

Final

Miami (OH) 20 · Akron 7

Conference game

Spread: Miami (OH) −11.5; Akron +11.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −455 / +350; Akron 21% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.9; +4.6 vs market · leans Akron

Spread moved +2.0 (9.5 → 11.5, 3 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 1.5 · 27 points — under

Kansas at Texas Tech

Final

Kansas 17 · Texas Tech 42

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −13.5; Texas Tech -13.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +440 / −650; Texas Tech 82% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.1; -5.4 vs market · leans Kansas

Spread moved +1.0 (-14.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (60.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 11.5 · 59 points — over

Clemson at Boston College

Final

Clemson 41 · Boston College 10

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Clemson −14.0; Boston College +14.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −625 / +450; Boston College 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.2; +4.8 vs market · leans Boston College

Spread moved +0.5 (13.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (53.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Clemson covered · by 17.0 · 51 points — under

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

Final

Virginia Tech 20 · Georgia Tech 35

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Georgia Tech −14.0; Georgia Tech -14.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +440 / −600; Georgia Tech 82% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.2; -1.8 vs market · leans Virginia Tech

Spread moved +0.5 (-14.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (55.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Tech covered · by 1.0 · 55 points — under

Houston at Oklahoma State

Final

Houston 39 · Oklahoma State 17

Conference game

Spread: Houston −14.5; Oklahoma State +14.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −650 / +470; Oklahoma State 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.7; +3.8 vs market · leans Oklahoma State

Spread moved +0.5 (14.0 → 14.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (46.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Houston covered · by 7.5 · 56 points — over

New Mexico at Boise State

Final

New Mexico 25 · Boise State 41

Conference game

Spread: Boise State −14.5; Boise State -14.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +475 / −750; Boise State 84% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.8; -0.7 vs market · leans New Mexico

Spread moved +2.0 (-16.5 → -14.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (59.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Boise State covered · by 1.5 · 66 points — over

Old Dominion at Marshall

Final

Old Dominion 24 · Marshall 48

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Old Dominion −14.5; Marshall +14.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −600 / +440; Marshall 18% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.7; +6.8 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved +0.5 (14.0 → 14.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (55.0 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Marshall covered · by 38.5 · 72 points — over

Ohio State at Illinois

Final

Ohio State 34 · Illinois 16

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −15.0; Illinois +15.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −750 / +500; Illinois 16% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.4; +7.6 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved +1.5 (13.5 → 15.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (50.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 3.0 · 50 points — under

Charlotte at Army

Final

Charlotte 7 · Army 24

Conference game

Spread: Army −17.5; Army -17.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +575 / −900; Army 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -25.8; +8.3 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved +3.0 (-20.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Result

Charlotte covered · by 0.5 · 31 points — under

Louisiana at James Madison

Final

Louisiana 14 · James Madison 24

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −18.5; James Madison -18.5; 3 books
Total: 45.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +675 / −1050; James Madison 88% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.6; -0.9 vs market · leans Louisiana

Spread moved -1.0 (-17.5 → -18.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (46.5 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana covered · by 8.5 · 38 points — under

Stanford at SMU

Final

Stanford 10 · SMU 34

Conference game

Spread: SMU −19.5; SMU -19.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +675 / −1050; SMU 88% to win; 3 books
Our model: -20.4; +0.9 vs market · leans SMU

Spread moved -1.5 (-18.0 → -19.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (56.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

SMU covered · by 4.5 · 44 points — under

Northwestern at Penn State

Final

Northwestern 22 · Penn State 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Penn State −20.5; Penn State -20.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +800 / −1600; Penn State 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -18.2; -2.3 vs market · leans Northwestern

Spread moved +1.0 (-21.5 → -20.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (48.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Northwestern covered · by 21.5 · 43 points — under

NC State at Notre Dame

Final

NC State 7 · Notre Dame 36

Spread: Notre Dame −23.5; Notre Dame -23.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1100 / −2500; Notre Dame 92% to win; 3 books
Our model: -25.1; +1.6 vs market · leans Notre Dame

Spread moved -1.0 (-22.5 → -23.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (62.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Notre Dame covered · by 5.5 · 43 points — under

Washington State at Ole Miss

Final

Washington State 21 · Ole Miss 24

Spread: Ole Miss −33.0; Ole Miss -33.0; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -27.9; -5.1 vs market · leans Washington State

Spread moved -0.5 (-32.5 → -33.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (59.0 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 30.0 · 45 points — under

Biggest upsets

Northwestern beat Penn State11% to win
Marshall beat Old Dominion18% to win
Bowling Green beat Toledo23% to win
Pittsburgh beat Florida State24% to win
Troy beat Texas State28% to win

Where we disagreed most

Charlotte at Army+8.3 pts toward Army
Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-8.0 pts toward Missouri State
Pittsburgh at Florida State-7.8 pts toward Pittsburgh
Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-7.7 pts toward Louisiana Tech
Air Force at UNLV+7.7 pts toward UNLV

Coverage

56 games in this week's window · 56 with a spread · 56 with a total · 55 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →