Matt Olson vs Mitch Keller

The Almanac's Take

Olson's .888 OPS from the left side against a right-hander running a 5.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP is the core of this matchup — the platoon edge is real and the season-long sample backs it up. Keller's 6.7 K/9 limits the strikeout risk somewhat, but 13 home runs allowed in 103.1 innings is a problem when Olson has 25 on the year with a .545 slugging mark. The 18-PA head-to-head is too thin to weight heavily, though a .500 average and 93.5 mph average exit velo across those meetings at least don't contradict the season read. This is a matchup Olson's profile sets up well for on paper.

Career head-to-head

AVG

.500

9-for-18

PA

18

HR

2

K

2

BB

0

Pitches seen

78

Avg exit velo

93.5 mph

Career meetings in the Statcast era (2015–present). Even a clear edge over a handful of plate appearances is a small sample — read it as color, not a projection.

Pitch mix to the batter

Plate-appearance log

• 2026-07-09Field Out · Sinker 94.0 mph · 83.8 mph EV
• 2026-07-09Home Run · Cutter 88.9 mph · 107.6 mph EV
• 2026-06-05Single · Sinker 92.5 mph · 105.4 mph EV
• 2026-06-05Field Out · Cutter 90.6 mph · 93.3 mph EV
• 2026-06-05Single · Cutter 90.1 mph · 66.7 mph EV
• 2025-09-26Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 95.3 mph
• 2025-09-26Home Run · Sweeper 83.8 mph · 102.5 mph EV
• 2024-05-25Field Out · Sinker 94.4 mph · 97.8 mph EV
• 2024-05-25Single · Cutter 92.2 mph · 104.6 mph EV
• 2024-05-25Field Out · Cutter 92.5 mph · 89.2 mph EV
• 2023-09-08Hit By Pitch · Sweeper 84.1 mph
• 2023-09-08Single · Sweeper 82.5 mph · 70.4 mph EV
• 2023-09-08Single · Sweeper 82.1 mph · 106.4 mph EV
• 2023-08-08Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 97.1 mph
• 2023-08-08Single · Cutter 91.8 mph · 105.6 mph EV
• 2023-08-08Field Out · Cutter 91.9 mph · 82.2 mph EV
• 2022-08-24Field Out · 4-Seam Fastball 96.3 mph · 85.7 mph EV
• 2022-08-24Double · Changeup 90.5 mph · 101.5 mph EV