2 games · 3 starters · Updated Jul 27, 5:35 AM ET
Three starters on the board today, all high-confidence projections. Messick is the clearest arm — 5.8 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay, an elite matchup grade, and a 2.68 ERA that backs the projection's optimism. Rasmussen draws the same game from the other side: 5.3 Ks in 5.6 projected innings with a favorable matchup grade, though his 3.28 ERA and slightly shallower line put him a half-step behind. Mikolas sits at 3.9 projected innings with a 3.4 K projection against Arizona in an unfavorable matchup — the 5.42 season ERA fits that read, and there's no clean angle there.
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | K | HR | P | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 5.7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 88 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 91 | W |
| 2026-07-04 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100 | — |
| 2026-06-29 | 6.7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 83 | L |
| 2026-06-23 | 7.7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 95 | L |
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians
| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | K | HR | P | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 93 | W |
| 2026-07-04 | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 77 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 99 | W |
| 2026-06-22 | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 90 | L |
| 2026-06-16 | 7.0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 102 | L |
vs Arizona Diamondbacks
| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | K | HR | P | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 3.7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 66 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 59 | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 6.0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 99 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | 7.0 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 97 | L |
| 2026-06-24 | 3.3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 60 | — |
Ask The Almanac about an arm's arsenal, the opposing lineup's xwOBA vs hand, or recent velocity trends.