MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

May 17, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

2 games · 3 starters · Updated Jul 19, 11:38 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Thin three-game slate with one null-projection arm, so temper expectations on coverage depth. Rasmussen is the cleaner side of the Tampa-Miami matchup — 5.5 projected Ks over 5.6 innings against a Marlins lineup, inside Tropicana's 5% run-suppression dome, projecting to just 2.0 ER. Gausman draws a neutral Detroit matchup but actually edges Rasmussen slightly on projected strikeouts (5.6 K, 5.6 IP, 2.2 ER), making him a reasonable alternative if the price is right. Eury Pérez carries no projections here — his 4.60 season ERA and blank data block make him unplayable from an analytics standpoint today.

#1Drew Rasmussen(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins

Tropicana Field · Final

GS: 18
IP: 99.3
W-L: 7-5
ERA: 3.26
WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 8.90
BB/9: 1.50
K/BB: 5.76

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 5.6
K: 5.5
ER: 2.0
H: 4.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.3
QS%: 44%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.7
Floor: 3.2
Ceiling: 28.2
Rest: 6d

Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Drew Rasmussen.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-05-11	6.0	4	3	1	6	1	100	W
2026-05-05	6.0	7	3	1	5	1	85	—
2026-04-29	5.0	6	2	1	6	0	91	L
2026-04-24	6.0	5	1	1	6	1	98	W
2026-04-18	3.7	2	4	2	3	2	64	—

#2Kevin Gausman(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park · Final

GS: 20
IP: 112.3
W-L: 4-8
ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 3.62

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.6
ER: 2.2
H: 5.0
HR: 0.30
BB: 0.8
QS%: 42%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.7
Floor: 3.2
Ceiling: 28.2
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Kevin Gausman.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-05-11	4.7	10	6	0	5	1	100	L
2026-05-05	6.0	6	2	1	3	0	96	—
2026-04-30	5.7	4	4	2	2	2	94	L
2026-04-25	6.7	6	2	0	3	1	91	W
2026-04-19	6.0	7	2	1	4	0	86	W

#3Eury Pérez(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field · Final

GS: 16
IP: 85.7
W-L: 5-7
ERA: 3.78
WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.00
BB/9: 3.60
K/BB: 2.79

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.5
ER: 1.9
H: 4.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.4
Floor: 2.4
Ceiling: 20.4
Rest: 5d

Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Eury Pérez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-05-12	6.0	3	3	3	8	1	87	L
2026-05-06	5.0	4	5	5	6	1	93	L
2026-05-01	5.0	4	2	2	6	0	96	L
2026-04-25	5.3	7	4	2	6	2	94	L
2026-04-19	6.0	3	0	1	7	0	84	W

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