MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

May 17, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

2 games · 3 starters · Updated Jun 4, 9:05 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Thin three-game slate with one null-projection arm, so temper expectations on coverage depth. Rasmussen is the cleaner side of the Tampa-Miami matchup — 5.5 projected Ks over 5.6 innings against a Marlins lineup, inside Tropicana's 5% run-suppression dome, projecting to just 2.0 ER. Gausman draws a neutral Detroit matchup but actually edges Rasmussen slightly on projected strikeouts (5.6 K, 5.6 IP, 2.2 ER), making him a reasonable alternative if the price is right. Eury Pérez carries no projections here — his 4.60 season ERA and blank data block make him unplayable from an analytics standpoint today.

#1Drew Rasmussen(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins

Tropicana Field · Final

GS
11
IP
59.0
W-L
4-2
ERA
3.36
WHIP
1.00
K/9
8.40
BB/9
1.80
K/BB
4.58

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
5.6
K
5.5
ER
2.0
H
4.8
HR
0.30
BB
1.3
QS%
44%
Win%
45%
DK pts
15.8
Floor
3.3
Ceiling
28.3
Rest
6d
  • Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
  • Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Drew Rasmussen.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-05-116.043161100W
2026-05-056.07315185
2026-04-295.06216091L
2026-04-246.05116198W
2026-04-183.72423264

#2Kevin Gausman(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park · Final

GS
13
IP
75.0
W-L
4-4
ERA
3.48
WHIP
1.09
K/9
8.90
BB/9
1.70
K/BB
5.29

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.6
K
5.6
ER
2.2
H
5.0
HR
0.30
BB
0.8
QS%
43%
Win%
45%
DK pts
15.7
Floor
3.2
Ceiling
28.2
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Kevin Gausman.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-05-114.7106051100L
2026-05-056.06213096
2026-04-305.74422294L
2026-04-256.76203191W
2026-04-196.07214086W

#3Eury Pérez(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field · Final

GS
12
IP
62.7
W-L
3-6
ERA
4.60
WHIP
1.26
K/9
10.30
BB/9
4.00
K/BB
2.57

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.5
ER
1.9
H
4.1
HR
0.20
BB
2.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
11.4
Floor
2.4
Ceiling
20.4
Rest
5d
  • Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
  • Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Eury Pérez.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-05-126.03338187L
2026-05-065.04556193L
2026-05-015.04226096L
2026-04-255.37426294L
2026-04-196.03017084W

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