MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

May 10, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

2 games · 3 starters · Updated Jun 4, 5:47 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Three-game slate, all medium confidence — don't expect a lot of separation here. Martinez is the cleanest arm on the board: 5.6 projected K and 5.6 IP against Boston, with a 2.29 season ERA, though Fenway's 6% run-scoring bump keeps the matchup neutral rather than favorable. Cavalli projects slightly better on earned runs (2.3) but draws an unfavorable matchup tag against Miami despite the dome. Alcantara's 4.5 projected IP is the shortest of the three and his 4.70 season ERA undercuts the 2.1 projected ER figure — the gap there is wide enough to treat his number skeptically.

#1Nick Martinez(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 70.7
W-L: 5-2
ERA: 2.29
WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 5.30
BB/9: 1.70
K/BB: 3.23

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.6
ER: 2.5
H: 5.2
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.2
QS%: 40%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 14.8
Floor: 3.1
Ceiling: 26.5
Rest: 6d

Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6%

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Nick Martinez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-05-04	5.0	5	1	1	4	0	71	W
2026-04-28	7.0	3	0	1	4	0	78	W
2026-04-22	8.0	5	1	1	6	0	95	W
2026-04-17	5.3	8	2	3	3	0	88	L
2026-04-11	4.7	5	1	3	4	1	87	—

#2Cade Cavalli(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins

loanDepot park · Final

GS: 13
IP: 64.7
W-L: 3-3
ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 10.30
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 3.08

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.4
ER: 2.3
H: 4.8
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.7
Floor: 2.8
Ceiling: 24.6
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Cade Cavalli.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-05-05	4.0	5	3	3	2	0	76	L
2026-04-29	6.0	8	2	2	10	1	97	W
2026-04-23	5.0	7	2	0	10	0	85	—
2026-04-18	4.0	7	1	0	5	0	92	—
2026-04-07	4.7	4	1	4	3	0	94	—

#3Sandy Alcantara(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals

loanDepot park · Final

GS: 13
IP: 82.3
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 4.70
WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 6.20
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 2.71

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.5
ER: 2.1
H: 4.3
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.1
Floor: 2.3
Ceiling: 19.9
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Sandy Alcantara.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-05-05	4.3	8	7	3	5	0	106	—
2026-04-29	6.0	7	2	2	4	0	104	—
2026-04-24	6.0	9	3	1	4	0	108	W
2026-04-18	5.0	5	3	6	1	1	97	L
2026-04-12	6.0	10	7	2	4	3	100	L

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