MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 30, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

5 games · 9 starters · Updated Jul 19, 11:38 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Skenes is the clear top arm today — projected 6.3 Ks over 6.2 innings against St. Louis, with a 1.2 projected ER and an elite matchup grade. The 48°F conditions in Pittsburgh only help him, suppressing Cardinal offense further. Sánchez is the other name worth attention: his 1.47 season ERA is the best on the board, and a 6.1 projected K line against San Francisco is real production, though seven days of extended rest introduces enough rust risk to trim confidence slightly. Elder draws a favorable matchup against Detroit with a clean 2.63 ERA and no flags attached — quieter profile, similar floor.

#1Paul Skenes(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

PNC Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 103.0
W-L: 8-7
ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 10.50
BB/9: 1.80
K/BB: 5.71

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.3
ER: 1.2
H: 4.7
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.1
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 20.5
Floor: 4.2
Ceiling: 36.8
Rest: 6d

Cold conditions (48°F) suppress offense
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Paul Skenes.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	7.0	1	0	0	7	0	93	W
2026-04-18	4.0	3	0	0	5	0	64	—
2026-04-13	6.0	1	1	1	6	1	88	W
2026-04-07	6.3	2	1	2	6	1	87	W
2026-04-01	5.0	3	1	2	5	0	77	W

#2Cristopher Sánchez(LHP)

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants

Citizens Bank Park · Final

GS: 20
IP: 127.3
W-L: 11-4
ERA: 2.62
WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.20
BB/9: 1.80
K/BB: 5.76

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 6.1
ER: 2.2
H: 5.0
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 42%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 16.3
Floor: 3.4
Ceiling: 29.2
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Cristopher Sánchez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-23	5.3	12	6	2	4	2	99	—
2026-04-18	6.0	8	0	1	8	0	93	L
2026-04-13	6.0	6	2	3	8	1	96	W
2026-04-07	5.0	11	2	0	6	0	92	L
2026-04-01	5.3	4	1	4	7	0	97	—

#3Bryce Elder(RHP)

Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers

Truist Park · Final

GS: 18
IP: 102.7
W-L: 5-6
ERA: 4.12
WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.50
BB/9: 2.80
K/BB: 2.69

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 5.6
K: 5.5
ER: 2.1
H: 4.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.8
QS%: 43%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.2
Floor: 3.1
Ceiling: 27.3
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Bryce Elder.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-25	7.0	6	3	1	2	0	92	—
2026-04-20	6.7	3	3	2	6	1	98	W
2026-04-15	5.7	4	0	2	7	0	79	W
2026-04-10	4.7	4	2	3	3	1	76	—
2026-04-04	7.0	4	0	1	8	0	89	L

#4Framber Valdez(LHP)

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 107.7
W-L: 5-6
ERA: 4.10
WHIP: 1.30
K/9: 7.30
BB/9: 3.00
K/BB: 2.42

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.3
ER: 2.2
H: 4.6
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.8
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.7
Floor: 2.8
Ceiling: 24.6
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Framber Valdez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	4.3	4	2	5	4	1	89	—
2026-04-19	6.0	3	1	2	7	1	98	W
2026-04-14	7.0	3	1	2	1	0	87	—
2026-04-08	5.0	10	8	2	2	0	87	L
2026-04-03	6.0	3	0	2	5	0	91	W

#5Logan Webb(RHP)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park · Final

GS: 16
IP: 102.0
W-L: 5-6
ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 6.90
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 3.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.1
ER: 2.3
H: 4.7
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.1
Floor: 2.7
Ceiling: 23.5
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Logan Webb.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-23	7.0	7	3	2	5	0	98	L
2026-04-17	6.0	7	4	2	6	1	99	W
2026-04-11	6.0	5	4	3	6	1	98	L
2026-04-05	7.0	7	1	1	3	0	92	—
2026-03-31	6.0	3	3	4	5	0	104	W

#6Chris Bassitt(RHP)

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final

GS: 11
IP: 50.3
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 5.72
WHIP: 1.73
K/9: 6.30
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 1.67

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.4
ER: 2.1
H: 4.2
HR: 0.10
BB: 1.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.0
Floor: 2.3
Ceiling: 19.7
Rest: 8d

Extended rest (8 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Chris Bassitt.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-22	5.3	8	5	2	3	2	88	W
2026-04-17	5.0	4	0	4	2	0	100	—
2026-04-11	4.7	7	1	1	2	0	89	—
2026-03-30	4.3	6	4	4	3	0	100	L

#7Hunter Dobbins(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC Park · Final

GS: 5
IP: 22.3
W-L: 1-1
ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 4.00
K/BB: 2.30

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.5
ER: 2.0
H: 4.2
HR: 0.30
BB: 4.1
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.0
Floor: 2.1
Ceiling: 17.9
Rest: 5d

Cold conditions (48°F) suppress offense
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#8Michael Lorenzen(RHP)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 21
IP: 97.0
W-L: 3-9
ERA: 6.40
WHIP: 1.77
K/9: 6.80
BB/9: 3.50
K/BB: 1.92

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.0
H: 3.8
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.5
Floor: 2.0
Ceiling: 17.0
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael Lorenzen.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	7.0	7	1	0	3	0	90	W
2026-04-19	5.0	7	3	1	3	0	88	—
2026-04-08	5.7	7	1	2	4	0	100	W
2026-04-03	3.0	12	9	2	2	2	77	L
2026-03-28	4.3	7	3	0	4	1	93	—

#9Andrew Abbott(LHP)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 20
IP: 105.0
W-L: 5-5
ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 7.20
BB/9: 4.10
K/BB: 1.75

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.8
ER: 2.0
H: 3.8
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.0
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.1
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Andrew Abbott.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	4.0	6	5	2	4	2	89	—
2026-04-18	4.7	6	3	3	3	0	97	—
2026-04-12	3.0	8	7	2	1	1	71	L
2026-04-07	5.3	6	2	2	2	0	91	—
2026-04-01	5.7	5	4	3	5	1	88	L

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