MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 22, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

3 games · 4 starters · Updated Jul 19, 11:38 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Four starters on the board today, and Lambert is the clear top arm despite a low-confidence tag. He projects for 7.3 Ks over 6.2 IP against Cleveland with a 1.6 projected ER, and Progressive Field suppressing run scoring by 9% only sweetens that line — the confidence flag is worth noting but doesn't meaningfully undercut the matchup. Junk draws a favorable card against St. Louis in a dome setting and projects 5.5 Ks over 5.6 IP, though a 4.8 season ERA keeps the ceiling honest. Leahy and Williamson both carry unfavorable matchups and project under 4.0 IP — thin starting options.

#1Peter Lambert(RHP)

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians

Progressive Field · Final

GS
16
IP
92.0
W-L
8-5
ERA
3.03
WHIP
1.11
K/9
8.90
BB/9
3.50
K/BB
2.53

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
7.3
ER
1.6
H
5.0
HR
0.50
BB
2.1
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
20.9
Floor
4.3
Ceiling
37.5
Rest
5d
  • Progressive Field suppresses run scoring by 9%
  • low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Peter Lambert.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-04-175.07418090L

#2Janson Junk(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals

loanDepot park · Final

GS
12
IP
65.0
W-L
4-5
ERA
4.57
WHIP
1.31
K/9
6.60
BB/9
2.40
K/BB
2.82

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.6
K
5.5
ER
2.4
H
5.1
HR
0.10
BB
1.4
QS%
41%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.7
Floor
3.0
Ceiling
26.4
Rest
5d
  • Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
  • low sample

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Janson Junk.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-04-175.36323093
2026-04-115.05424199L
2026-04-067.37213187L
2026-03-314.35215079

#3Kyle Leahy(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins

loanDepot park · Final

GS
18
IP
89.3
W-L
7-4
ERA
3.73
WHIP
1.41
K/9
7.60
BB/9
3.30
K/BB
2.27

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.7
ER
2.1
H
3.9
HR
0.20
BB
1.5
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.6
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
15.4
Rest
5d
  • Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
  • low sample

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Kyle Leahy.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-04-175.05306383W
2026-04-114.03232071L
2026-04-055.05234197W
2026-03-305.08421079L

#4Brandon Williamson(LHP)

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field · Final

GS
6
IP
28.0
W-L
2-3
ERA
6.11
WHIP
1.64
K/9
6.10
BB/9
6.40
K/BB
0.95

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.7
ER
2.2
H
4.0
HR
0.20
BB
2.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
7.8
Floor
1.6
Ceiling
14.0
Rest
5d
  • Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
  • Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
  • low sample

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Brandon Williamson.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-04-175.33142093W
2026-04-114.03363093
2026-04-066.73014093W
2026-03-314.76623394L

More for this date

Want the why behind a projection?

Ask The Almanac about an arm's arsenal, the opposing lineup's xwOBA vs hand, or recent velocity trends.

Start a conversation →