MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 7, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

1 game · 2 starters · Updated Jul 12, 12:21 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Two starters, one game — thin slate, so the edge is mostly about choosing a side. Williams is the stronger projection: 5.9 Ks over 5.6 innings with 1.6 projected ER against Kansas City, a favorable matchup, at medium confidence. Cameron counters with 5.1 Ks over 5.1 innings and 1.7 projected ER, but that 4.89 season ERA and low-confidence tag make him harder to trust. Both arms benefit from the same park and conditions — Progressive Field suppresses run scoring 9%, and 32°F at first pitch pushes that suppression further. Williams is the cleaner read here.

#1Gavin Williams(RHP)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals

Progressive Field · Final

GS
19
IP
113.3
W-L
10-4
ERA
3.81
WHIP
1.14
K/9
10.60
BB/9
2.90
K/BB
3.62

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
5.6
K
5.9
ER
1.6
H
4.6
HR
0.20
BB
4.4
QS%
47%
Win%
45%
DK pts
15.6
Floor
3.2
Ceiling
28.0
Rest
6d
  • Progressive Field suppresses run scoring by 9%
  • Cold conditions (32°F) suppress offense
  • low sample

Last 3 Starts

Recent starts for Gavin Williams.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-04-017.020310085W
2026-03-275.02367189L
2026-03-013.02103144W

#2Noah Cameron(LHP)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians

Progressive Field · Final

GS
18
IP
95.7
W-L
5-7
ERA
4.89
WHIP
1.43
K/9
8.60
BB/9
3.00
K/BB
2.84

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.1
K
5.1
ER
1.7
H
4.3
HR
0.20
BB
1.1
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.9
Floor
3.1
Ceiling
26.7
Rest
6d
  • Progressive Field suppresses run scoring by 9%
  • Cold conditions (32°F) suppress offense
  • low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Noah Cameron.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-04-015.04115086W

More for this date

Want the why behind a projection?

Ask The Almanac about an arm's arsenal, the opposing lineup's xwOBA vs hand, or recent velocity trends.

Start a conversation →