MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 3, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

5 games · 8 starters · Updated Jul 12, 4:53 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Every projection here carries low confidence, so treat the numbers as directional. Cease is the clearest arm on the board — 6.7 projected Ks over 6.2 IP against a White Sox lineup that should struggle, and Rate Field's 5% run-suppression plus 50°F temps compound an already elite matchup. Valdez profiles almost as cleanly at 6.2 Ks and 1.8 projected ER against St. Louis, though seven days of extended rest is a real flag. Both sit well above the rest of the slate, where nobody else projects past 5.0 Ks and matchup quality drops off sharply.

#1Dylan Cease(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox

Rate Field · Final

GS: 17
IP: 98.3
W-L: 6-4
ERA: 2.56
WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 13.50
BB/9: 4.00
K/BB: 3.36

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.7
ER: 1.6
H: 4.9
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.4
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 34.8
Rest: 6d

Rate Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
Cold conditions (50°F) suppress offense
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Dylan Cease.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	5.3	3	1	2	12	0	90	—

#2Framber Valdez(LHP)

Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Comerica Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 107.7
W-L: 5-6
ERA: 4.10
WHIP: 1.30
K/9: 7.30
BB/9: 3.00
K/BB: 2.42

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.2
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.7
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.5
Floor: 3.8
Ceiling: 33.2
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Framber Valdez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	7	1	1	5	0	83	—

#3Sonny Gray(RHP)

Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres

Fenway Park · Final

GS: 17
IP: 95.7
W-L: 11-1
ERA: 2.54
WHIP: 1.10
K/9: 8.00
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 3.54

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.0
ER: 2.4
H: 4.8
HR: 0.10
BB: 0.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.3
Floor: 2.7
Ceiling: 23.9
Rest: 6d

Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6%
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Sonny Gray.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	4.0	6	3	1	5	1	80	—

#4Michael King(RHP)

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 108.3
W-L: 6-7
ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 7.60
BB/9: 3.60
K/BB: 2.14

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.9
ER: 2.3
H: 4.4
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.3
Floor: 2.3
Ceiling: 20.3
Rest: 7d

Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6%
Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Michael King.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	5.0	1	0	4	6	0	82	—

#5Eury Pérez(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · Final

GS: 15
IP: 79.7
W-L: 5-6
ERA: 3.84
WHIP: 1.10
K/9: 10.10
BB/9: 3.60
K/BB: 2.78

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.4
ER: 2.2
H: 4.3
HR: 0.40
BB: 2.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.3
Floor: 2.1
Ceiling: 18.5
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Eury Pérez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	7.0	5	3	1	8	2	93	—

#6Emmet Sheehan(RHP)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Final

GS: 16
IP: 77.0
W-L: 4-6
ERA: 4.91
WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 10.10
BB/9: 2.90
K/BB: 3.44

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 4.0
ER: 2.3
H: 4.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.6
Floor: 1.8
Ceiling: 15.4
Rest: 7d

Nationals Park boosts run scoring by 5%
Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Emmet Sheehan.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	3.3	5	4	2	6	1	83	—

#7Michael McGreevy(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park · Final

GS: 18
IP: 101.7
W-L: 4-7
ERA: 3.01
WHIP: 1.10
K/9: 5.80
BB/9: 2.00
K/BB: 2.87

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.8
ER: 2.5
H: 4.1
HR: 0.50
BB: 0.8
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.3
Floor: 1.7
Ceiling: 14.9
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Michael McGreevy.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	6.0	0	0	2	5	0	96	—

#8Miles Mikolas(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Nationals Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 90.3
W-L: 3-7
ERA: 5.58
WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 5.00
BB/9: 1.90
K/BB: 2.63

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.7
ER: 2.7
H: 4.3
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 7.3
Floor: 1.5
Ceiling: 13.1
Rest: 6d

Nationals Park boosts run scoring by 5%
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Miles Mikolas.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	5.0	6	4	3	4	1	97	L

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