MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 3, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

5 games · 8 starters · Updated Jun 4, 5:55 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Cease and Valdez are the two arms worth building around today. Cease projects for 6.7 Ks over 6.2 innings against the White Sox — the best matchup on the board — with Rate Field and 50°F conditions both suppressing offense further; 1.6 projected ER is a number that sticks out on an otherwise modest slate. Valdez matches him in projected IP (6.2) with 6.2 projected Ks and a 1.7 ER projection against St. Louis, though seven days of extended rest is a real flag on a pitcher who already carries a 4.39 ERA this season. Everything else here is low-confidence across the board, and the projections reflect it.

#1Dylan Cease(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox

Rate Field · Final

GS: 11
IP: 62.0
W-L: 3-3
ERA: 3.05
WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 13.40
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 3.54

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.7
ER: 1.6
H: 4.9
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.4
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 34.8
Rest: 6d

Rate Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
Cold conditions (50°F) suppress offense

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Dylan Cease.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	5.3	3	1	2	12	0	90	—

#2Framber Valdez(LHP)

Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Comerica Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 67.7
W-L: 2-4
ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 1.30
K/9: 7.20
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 2.16

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.2
ER: 1.7
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.7
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.7
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 33.5
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Framber Valdez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	7	1	1	5	0	83	—

#3Sonny Gray(RHP)

Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres

Fenway Park · Final

GS: 10
IP: 50.0
W-L: 6-1
ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.20
K/9: 7.40
BB/9: 2.50
K/BB: 2.93

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.1
K: 5.0
ER: 2.3
H: 4.8
HR: 0.10
BB: 0.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.5
Floor: 2.8
Ceiling: 24.2
Rest: 6d

Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6%

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Sonny Gray.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	4.0	6	3	1	5	1	80	—

#4Michael King(RHP)

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 68.0
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 3.18
WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.60
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 2.24

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.9
ER: 2.2
H: 4.3
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.6
Floor: 2.4
Ceiling: 20.8
Rest: 7d

Fenway Park boosts run scoring by 6%
Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Michael King.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	5.0	1	0	4	6	0	82	—

#5Eury Pérez(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · Final

GS: 12
IP: 62.7
W-L: 3-6
ERA: 4.60
WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 10.30
BB/9: 4.00
K/BB: 2.57

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.4
ER: 2.1
H: 4.3
HR: 0.40
BB: 2.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.5
Floor: 2.2
Ceiling: 18.8
Rest: 6d

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Eury Pérez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	7.0	5	3	1	8	2	93	—

#6Emmet Sheehan(RHP)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Final

GS: 11
IP: 58.0
W-L: 3-2
ERA: 4.50
WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.60
BB/9: 2.20
K/BB: 4.43

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 4.0
ER: 2.2
H: 4.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.8
Floor: 1.8
Ceiling: 15.8
Rest: 7d

Nationals Park boosts run scoring by 5%
Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Emmet Sheehan.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	3.3	5	4	2	6	1	83	—

#7Michael McGreevy(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 66.3
W-L: 3-5
ERA: 2.98
WHIP: 1.10
K/9: 6.00
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 2.59

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.8
ER: 2.4
H: 4.1
HR: 0.50
BB: 0.8
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.5
Floor: 1.8
Ceiling: 15.2
Rest: 6d

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Michael McGreevy.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	6.0	0	0	2	5	0	96	—

#8Miles Mikolas(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Nationals Park · Final

GS: 13
IP: 56.3
W-L: 1-5
ERA: 6.07
WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 5.80
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 2.25

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.7
ER: 2.7
H: 4.2
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 7.4
Floor: 1.5
Ceiling: 13.3
Rest: 6d

Nationals Park boosts run scoring by 5%

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Miles Mikolas.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-28	5.0	6	4	3	4	1	97	L

More for this date

DFS Picks Player Props Confirmed Lineups Matchups

Want the why behind a projection?

Ask The Almanac about an arm's arsenal, the opposing lineup's xwOBA vs hand, or recent velocity trends.

Start a conversation →