MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 1, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

4 games · 5 starters · Updated Jul 11, 3:55 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Thin five-game slate and every projection carries low confidence, so treat these numbers as directional. Gausman against Colorado is the cleanest line — 0.9 projected ER over 6.2 innings with 6.9 projected Ks in a dome game strips out weather noise entirely, and Colorado's contact profile makes that matchup grade favorable. Peralta draws an elite matchup tag against St. Louis with 1.6 projected ER and 6.4 Ks across 6.2 innings, though his 4.5 season ERA is a reminder the upside here is matchup-driven. Sale's 2.2 season ERA keeps him interesting against Oakland despite the modest 6.6 projected Ks. Severino faces Atlanta with just 4.5 projected innings and an unfavorable tag — hard to build around.

#1Kevin Gausman(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies

Rogers Centre · Final

GS: 19
IP: 106.3
W-L: 4-8
ERA: 4.40
WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.10
BB/9: 2.50
K/BB: 3.72

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.9
ER: 0.9
H: 4.5
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.3
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 22.9
Floor: 4.7
Ceiling: 41.1
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Kevin Gausman.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	1	1	0	11	1	83	—

#2Freddy Peralta(RHP)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium · Final

GS: 19
IP: 100.0
W-L: 5-7
ERA: 4.50
WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 8.80
BB/9: 3.50
K/BB: 2.51

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.4
ER: 1.6
H: 5.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.4
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.5
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 35.0
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Freddy Peralta.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-26	5.0	6	4	0	7	2	80	W

#3Chris Sale(LHP)

Atlanta Braves vs Athletics

Truist Park · Final

GS: 15
IP: 90.0
W-L: 8-6
ERA: 2.20
WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 10.40
BB/9: 2.10
K/BB: 4.95

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.6
ER: 2.0
H: 5.2
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.8
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 33.7
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Chris Sale.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	3	0	3	6	0	88	W

#4Paul Skenes(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 18
IP: 97.7
W-L: 7-7
ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 10.40
BB/9: 1.80
K/BB: 5.65

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.3
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 3.1
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 17.9
Floor: 3.7
Ceiling: 32.1
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#5Luis Severino(RHP)

Athletics vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 62.7
W-L: 2-6
ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 4.50
K/BB: 2.10

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.2
ER: 2.2
H: 4.3
HR: 0.40
BB: 3.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.3
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.7
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Luis Severino.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	5.0	3	2	3	3	0	84	—

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