MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

March 27, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

7 games · 12 starters · Updated Jul 19, 12:14 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Gausman is the sharpest arm on the board — 6.8 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against the Athletics in a weather-neutral dome, and a favorable matchup to boot. Schlittler is close behind at 6.5 Ks over 6.2 frames, with Oracle Park knocking another 8% off an already-friendly Giants offense; his 1.89 season ERA gives the projection something real to lean on, even if confidence reads low across the entire slate. Framber Valdez draws the "elite" matchup tag at Petco with 6.6 projected Ks, though a 4.39 ERA makes the floor murkier. Worth noting: Gavin Williams carries a 26-day extended rest flag — rust risk is real there regardless of the favorable matchup.

#1Cam Schlittler(RHP)

New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants

Oracle Park · Final

GS: 20
IP: 118.7
W-L: 9-5
ERA: 2.05
WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 10.40
BB/9: 1.90
K/BB: 5.48

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.5
ER: 0.9
H: 4.5
HR: 0.10
BB: 0.4
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 22.0
Floor: 4.5
Ceiling: 39.5
Rest: 5d

Oracle Park suppresses run scoring by 8%
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#2Kevin Gausman(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics

Rogers Centre · Final

GS: 20
IP: 112.3
W-L: 4-8
ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 3.62

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.8
ER: 1.3
H: 4.7
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.3
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 21.8
Floor: 4.5
Ceiling: 39.1
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#3Framber Valdez(LHP)

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres

Petco Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 107.7
W-L: 5-6
ERA: 4.10
WHIP: 1.30
K/9: 7.30
BB/9: 3.00
K/BB: 2.42

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.6
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.2
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.6
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 35.2
Rest: 5d

Petco Park suppresses run scoring by 8%
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#4Sandy Alcantara(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies

loanDepot park · Final

GS: 21
IP: 136.7
W-L: 10-5
ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.00
BB/9: 2.40
K/BB: 2.89

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.4
ER: 1.5
H: 4.9
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.0
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.4
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 34.8
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#5Robbie Ray(LHP)

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees

Oracle Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 106.7
W-L: 8-6
ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.60
BB/9: 4.40
K/BB: 1.73

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.0
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.5
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.8
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 33.7
Rest: 5d

Oracle Park suppresses run scoring by 8%
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#6Mike Burrows(RHP)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels

Daikin Park · Final

GS: 18
IP: 94.7
W-L: 4-9
ERA: 5.99
WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 7.10
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 2.14

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.1
K: 5.0
ER: 2.1
H: 4.6
HR: 0.40
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.4
Floor: 2.8
Ceiling: 24.0
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#7Chris Sale(LHP)

Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals

Truist Park · Final

GS: 17
IP: 100.0
W-L: 9-6
ERA: 1.98
WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 10.30
BB/9: 2.00
K/BB: 5.23

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.3
ER: 2.4
H: 4.8
HR: 0.10
BB: 2.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 12.8
Floor: 2.6
Ceiling: 23.0
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#8Gavin Williams(RHP)

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners

T-Mobile Park · Final

GS: 20
IP: 119.3
W-L: 10-5
ERA: 4.00
WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.90
BB/9: 2.80
K/BB: 3.92

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.0
ER: 1.7
H: 4.4
HR: 0.40
BB: 5.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 12.3
Floor: 2.5
Ceiling: 22.1
Rest: 26d

T-Mobile Park suppresses run scoring by 13%
Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
Extended rest (26 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Gavin Williams.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-01	3.0	2	1	0	3	1	44	W

#9Luis Severino(RHP)

Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays

Rogers Centre · Final

GS: 12
IP: 62.7
W-L: 2-6
ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 4.50
K/BB: 2.10

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 5.1
K: 4.4
ER: 2.1
H: 4.6
HR: 0.40
BB: 2.8
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.5
Floor: 2.4
Ceiling: 20.6
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#10Yusei Kikuchi(LHP)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros

Daikin Park · Final

GS: 7
IP: 31.0
W-L: 0-3
ERA: 5.81
WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 9.60
BB/9: 4.10
K/BB: 2.36

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 4.0
ER: 1.9
H: 3.7
HR: 0.30
BB: 0.9
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.0
Floor: 2.1
Ceiling: 17.9
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#11Kyle Freeland(LHP)

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins

loanDepot park · Final

GS: 18
IP: 88.0
W-L: 2-8
ERA: 7.36
WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 8.10
BB/9: 1.80
K/BB: 4.39

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.0
H: 3.8
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.3
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.7
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#12Cole Ragans(LHP)

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Final

GS: 8
IP: 35.3
W-L: 1-4
ERA: 4.84
WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 11.50
BB/9: 5.90
K/BB: 1.96

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.5
H: 4.1
HR: 0.10
BB: 2.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 7.3
Floor: 1.5
Ceiling: 13.1
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

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